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The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics

Editor-in-Chief: Cavalcanti, Tiago / Kambourov, Gueorgui

Ed. by Abraham, Arpad / Carceles-Poveda , Eva / Debortoli, Davide / Schwartzman, Felipe / Wang, Pengfei

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Reflections on macroeconometric modeling

Ray C. Fair
Published Online: 2014-12-05 | DOI: https://doi.org/10.1515/bejm-2014-0045


I have been doing research in macroeconomics since the late 1960s, almost 50 years. In this paper I pause and take stock. The paper is part personal reflections on macroeconometric modeling, part a road map of the techniques of macroeconometric modeling, and part comments on what I think I have learned about how the macroeconomy works from my research in this area. Section 1 contrasts the methodology of the Cowles Commission approach with that of DSGE modeling. Section 2 presents the general model that I am using; Section 3 discusses theory; and Section 4 discusses estimation and solution. Section 5 then discusses various results from the estimation; Section 6 discusses various properties of the model; and Section 7 uses the model to analyze various economic events. Wealth effects play a large role in the analysis of past events.

Keywords: Cowles Commission; macro modeling; policy properties


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About the article

Corresponding author: Ray C. Fair, Cowles Foundation, Department of Economics, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06520-8281, USA, e-mail: , website: fairmodel.econ.yale.edu.

Published Online: 2014-12-05

Published in Print: 2015-01-01

Citation Information: The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, Volume 15, Issue 1, Pages 445–466, ISSN (Online) 1935-1690, ISSN (Print) 2194-6116, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1515/bejm-2014-0045.

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