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About the article
Costas Panagopoulos is Associate Professor of Political Science and Director of the Center for Electoral Politics and Democracy at Fordham University.
Published Online: 2013-02-09
Details about Pollster’s aggregation methodology are available at: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/simon-jackman/modelbased-poll-averaging_b_1883525.html. (Accessed November 20, 2012.)
The Pollster estimates are correlated with the Gallup Daily Tracking poll measures (correlation coefficient=0.46, p<0.01), for example.
Lowess (locally weighted scatter plot smoothing) creates a new value for each time point based on the results of regressions using a designated number of surrounding data points. Predictions from these regressions are weighted based on their temporal distance from the point in question to generate the new value [see Erikson and Wlezien (1999) for additional details].
The Republican convention took place in Tampa, FL August 27–30, 2012, and the Democratic convention took place in Charlotte, NC September 3–7, 2012.
For the purposes of the current study, we consider the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy to have started on October 29 when much of the devastation was concentrated in the tri-state area of New Jersey, New York and Connecticut.