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About the article
Avi Feller is a PhD Student in the Department of Statistics, Harvard University.
Andrew Gelman is a Professor in the Department of Statistics and Political Science, Columbia University.
Boris Shor is a Robert Wood Johnson Foundation Scholar in Health Policy and Assistant Professor in the Harris School of Public Policy at the University of Chicago and University of California, Berkeley.
Published Online: 2013-02-09
As a cost saving measure, the media exit poll conglomerate only polled the 30 most competitive states.
In the top five most Republican states, 61% of men support Romney compared to just 42% in the five most Democratic states. For women, these numbers are uniformly lower – 52% Romney support in the most Republican states and 32% in the most Democratic states.
We treat income categories as numeric and rescale them by subtracting the mean and dividing by two times the standard deviation, as recommended in Gelman (2008). We perform a separate normalization for the exit polls and RWJ polls, for each of these we use a single consistent normalization for the whole country.
As discussed in Gelman et al. (2009), it is possible to estimate White voting patterns in much of the country, even in the absence of individual-level poll data, by subtracting out non-Whites votes. This is because voting patterns vary much less among non-Whites than among whites and publicly available survey data give us state-by-state estimates of voting patterns by race.