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The International Journal of Biostatistics

Ed. by Chambaz, Antoine / Hubbard, Alan E. / van der Laan, Mark J.

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ISSN
1557-4679
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Cut-Off Estimation and Medical Decision Making Based on a Continuous Prognostic Factor: The Prediction of Kidney Graft Failure

Yohann Foucher / Magali Giral / Jean-Paul Soulillou / Jean-Pierre Daurès
Published Online: 2012-01-06 | DOI: https://doi.org/10.2202/1557-4679.1215

The determination of a cut-off value for a continuous prognostic test is an important problem, which is statistically challenging and practically important for risk assessment. We propose in this paper a method to estimate the optimal cut-off from this type of longitudinal data with censored failure times. The principle is to combine the prognostic error rates of false positives and false negatives with a cost function, which has the advantages to be statistically convenient and to be directly associated with the decision-making. Simulations were performed and the results demonstrate the interest of our approach compared to a reference method. The method is also illustrated by predicting the long-term survival of kidney transplant recipients from the 1-year creatinine clearance.

Keywords: cut-off estimation; censored data; prognostic test; decision-making; cost function

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Published Online: 2012-01-06


Citation Information: The International Journal of Biostatistics, ISSN (Online) 1557-4679, DOI: https://doi.org/10.2202/1557-4679.1215.

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©2012 Walter de Gruyter GmbH & Co. KG, Berlin/Boston. Copyright Clearance Center

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