Jump to ContentJump to Main Navigation
Show Summary Details
More options …

Journal of Artificial General Intelligence

The Journal of the Artificial General Intelligence Society

3 Issues per year

Open Access
Online
ISSN
1946-0163
See all formats and pricing
More options …

Will We Hit a Wall? Forecasting Bottlenecks to Whole Brain Emulation Development

Jeff Alstott
Published Online: 2014-04-25 | DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/jagi-2013-0009

Abstract

Whole brain emulation (WBE) is the possible replication of human brain dynamics that reproduces human behavior. If created, WBE would have significant impact on human society, and forecasts frequently place WBE as arriving within a century. However, WBE would be a complex technology with a complex network of prerequisite technologies. Most forecasts only consider a fraction of this technology network. The unconsidered portions of the network may contain bottlenecks, which are slowly-developing technologies that would impede the development of WBE. Here I describe how bottlenecks in the network can be non-obvious, and the merits of identifying them early. I show that bottlenecks may be predicted even with noisy forecasts. Accurate forecasts of WBE development must incorporate potential bottlenecks, which can be found using detailed descriptions of the WBE technology network. Bottlenecks identification can also increase the impact of WBE researchers by directing effort to those technologies that will immediately affect the timeline of WBE development

Keywords: whole brain emulation; forecasting; bottlenecks; technology network

References

  • Cattell, R., and Parker, A. 2012. Challenges for Brain Emulation : Why is Building a Brain so Difficult ? Natural Intelligence 1(3).Google Scholar

  • Deca, D. 2012. Available Tools for Whole Brain Emulation. International Journal of Machine Consciousness 04(01):67-86.Google Scholar

  • Dortmans, P. J. 2005. Forecasting, backcasting, migration landscapes and strategic planning maps. Futures 37(4):273-285.CrossrefGoogle Scholar

  • Dunn, P. 2009. Why hasn’t commercial air travel gotten any faster since the 1960s? MIT Engineering.Google Scholar

  • Fiala, J. 2002. Three-dimensional structure of synapses in the brain and on theWeb. Proceedings of the 2002 International Joint Conference on Neural Networks. IJCNN’02 (Cat. No.02CH37290) 1-4.Google Scholar

  • Hanson, R. 1994. If Uploads Come First: The Crack of a Future Dawn. Extropy 6(2).Google Scholar

  • Hanson, R. 2009. The Economics of Brain Emulations. In Healey, P., and Rayner, S., eds., Unnatural Selection: The Challenges of Engineering Tomorrow’s People. Sterling, VA: Earthscan.Google Scholar

  • Hausmann, R.; Hidalgo, C. A.; Bustos, S.; Coscia, M.; Chung, S.; Jimenez, J.; Simoes, A.; and Yıldırım, M. A. 2011. The Atlas of Economic Complexity.Google Scholar

  • Izhikevich, E. M., and Edelman, G. M. 2008. Large-scale model of mammalian thalamocortical systems. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 105(9):3593-8.Google Scholar

  • Karr, J. R.; Sanghvi, J. C.; Macklin, D. N.; Gutschow, M. V.; Jacobs, J. M.; Bolival, B.; Assad- Garcia, N.; Glass, J. I.; and Covert, M. W. 2012. A whole-cell computational model predicts phenotype from genotype. Cell 150(2):389-401.Web of ScienceGoogle Scholar

  • Koene, R. A. 2012. Toward tractable AGI : Challenges for System Identification in Neural Circuitry. In Proceedings of the 5th International Conference on Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), 136-147.Google Scholar

  • Kurzweil, R. 2012. How to Create a Mind: The Secret of Human Thought Revealed. Viking Adult.Google Scholar

  • Lewis, J. S., and Niedzwiecki, R. W. 1999. Aircraft Technology and Its Relation to Emissions. In Penner, J. E.; Lister, D. H.; Griggs, D. J.; Dokken, D. J.; and McFarland, M., eds., Aviation and the Global Atmosphere. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar

  • McNerney, J.; Farmer, J. D.; Redner, S.; and Trancik, J. E. 2011. Role of design complexity in technology improvement. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 108(22):9008-2013.Web of ScienceGoogle Scholar

  • Meier, S., and Shelley, B. 1991. Civilization. MicroProse.Google Scholar

  • Parker, A. C.; Friesz, A. K.; and Pakdaman, A. 2006. Towards a Nanoscale Artificial Cortex. In The 2006 International Conference on Computing in Nanotechnology.Google Scholar

  • Peeters, P. M.; Middel, J.; and Hoolhorst, A. 2005. Fuel efficiency of commercial aircraft: An overview of historical and future trends. Technical Report November, National Aerospace Laboratory NLR.Google Scholar

  • Sandberg, A., and Bostrom, N. 2008. Whole Brain Emulation: A Roadmap. Technical report, Future of Humanity Institute, Oxford University.Google Scholar

  • Sandberg, A. 2013. Feasibility of Whole Brain Emulation. In M¨uller, V. C., ed., Theory and Philosophy of Artificial Intelligence. Berlin: Springer. 251-264.Google Scholar

  • Shores, C. 2011. Misbehaving Machines: The Emulated Brains of Transhumanist Dreams. Journal of Evolution and Technology 10-22.Google Scholar

  • Solé, R. V.; Valverde, S.; Casals, M. R.; Kauffman, S. A.; Farmer, D.; and Eldredge, N. 2013. The Evolutionary Ecology of Technological Innovations. 18(4):15-27.Google Scholar

  • Tëmkin, I., and Eldredge, N. 2007. Phylogenetics and Material Cultural Evolution. Current Anthropology 48(1):146-153.Google Scholar

  • Tresham, F. 1980. Civilization. Hartland Trefoil.Google Scholar

  • Valverde, S., and Sol´e, R. 2007. Self-organization versus hierarchy in open-source social networks. Physical Review E 76(4):046118.Web of ScienceGoogle Scholar

  • Walter, C. 2005. Kryder’s Law. Scientific American. Google Scholar

About the article

Received: 2013-06-01

Accepted: 2013-12-09

Published Online: 2014-04-25

Published in Print: 2013-12-01


Citation Information: Journal of Artificial General Intelligence, ISSN (Online) 1946-0163, DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/jagi-2013-0009.

Export Citation

© by Jeff Alstott. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial License, which permits unrestricted non-commercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. BY-NC-ND 3.0

Comments (0)

Please log in or register to comment.
Log in