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Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik

Journal of Economics and Statistics

Editor-in-Chief: Winker, Peter

Ed. by Büttner, Thiess / Riphahn, Regina / Smolny, Werner / Wagner, Joachim


IMPACT FACTOR 2018: 0.200
5-year IMPACT FACTOR: 0.309

CiteScore 2018: 0.50

SCImago Journal Rank (SJR) 2018: 0.154
Source Normalized Impact per Paper (SNIP) 2018: 0.382

Online
ISSN
2366-049X
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Volume 235, Issue 6

Issues

Spekulation am Terminmarkt und die Preisentwicklung von Agrarrohstoffen am Kassamarkt: Eine Zeitreihenanalyse der CFTC Berichte für Weizen, Mais und Sojabohnen / Speculation in Futures Markets and the Impact on Agricultural Commodity Prices: A Time Series Analysis of the CFTC Reports for Wheat, Corn and Soybeans

Daniel Maul
  • Corresponding author
  • Technische Universität Darmstadt, Fachbereich Rechts- und Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Fachgebiet Unternehmensfinanzierung, Hochschulstraße 1, 64289 Darmstadt, Germany
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  • Other articles by this author:
  • De Gruyter OnlineGoogle Scholar
/ Martin Fischer
  • Technische Universität Darmstadt, Fachbereich Rechts- und Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Fachgebiet Unternehmensfinanzierung, Hochschulstraße 1, 64289 Darmstadt, Germany
  • Other articles by this author:
  • De Gruyter OnlineGoogle Scholar
/ Dirk Schiereck
  • Technische Universität Darmstadt, Fachbereich Rechts- und Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Fachgebiet Unternehmensfinanzierung, Hochschulstraße 1, 64289 Darmstadt, Germany
  • Other articles by this author:
  • De Gruyter OnlineGoogle Scholar
Published Online: 2016-04-06 | DOI: https://doi.org/10.1515/jbnst-2015-0606

Summary

Over the last few years, rising prices and increasing price volatility of major agricultural food commodities were observed. This caused a debate among various organizations about who is responsible for this development. While many Non-Governmental Organizations proclaim that speculations in future markets cause the rise in food prices, academic research provides ambiguous results on this topic. This controversy is the motivation for this study. In order to offer additional insights, the relationship between the price changes of corn, wheat, and soybeans and the corresponding changes in open interests are analyzed. Commitments of Traders as well as Disaggregated Commitments of Traders reports are investigated to determine whether the activities of speculators adversely affect food prices. First, Johansen cointegration tests are employed to analyze the relationship between price and position data. Second, VAR and VECM are used to analyze short- and long-term dynamics. The results of the empirical analysis demonstrate that in the short-run price changes precede changes in open interest. Additionally, soybeans show a long-run equilibrium relationship between both series, indicating that speculators influenced past prices to some extent. However, the percentage price change is rather low. Therefore, sharp rises in soybean prices cannot be explained by it.

Keywords: Agricultural commodities; open interest; future prices; speculation

About the article

Published Online: 2016-04-06

Published in Print: 2015-12-01


Citation Information: Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik, Volume 235, Issue 6, Pages 608–629, ISSN (Online) 2366-049X, ISSN (Print) 0021-4027, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1515/jbnst-2015-0606.

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© 2015 by Lucius & Lucius, Stuttgart.

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