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Peer reviewed

Jahrbuch für Wirtschaftsgeschichte / Economic History Yearbook

Ed. by Ziegler, Dieter


CiteScore 2018: 0.06

SCImago Journal Rank (SJR) 2018: 0.115
Source Normalized Impact per Paper (SNIP) 2018: 0.203

Online
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2196-6842
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Volume 59, Issue 2

Issues

Fictional Expectations and the Global Media in the Greek Debt Crisis: A Topic Modeling Approach

Volker Daniel
  • Corresponding author
  • Lehrstuhl für Monetäre Makroökonomik, Martin-Luther-Universität Halle-Wittenberg, Universitätsring 3, D-06108 Halle (Saale), Germany
  • Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW) Berlin, Germany
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  • Other articles by this author:
  • De Gruyter OnlineGoogle Scholar
/ Magnus Neubert
  • Lehrstuhl für Monetäre Makroökonomik, Martin-Luther-Universität Halle-Wittenberg, Universitätsring 3, D-06108 Halle (Saale), Germany
  • Email
  • Other articles by this author:
  • De Gruyter OnlineGoogle Scholar
/ Dr. Agnes Orban
Published Online: 2018-12-31 | DOI: https://doi.org/10.1515/jbwg-2018-0018

Abstract

We study the role of global media during the Greek debt crisis and relate it to the transmission of events on financial actors’ expectations. To identify news coverage about the Greek debt crisis, we apply topic modeling to a newly compiled dataset of over 430,000 articles from The International New York Times and Financial Times from 2009 to 2015. We identify a Greek debt crisis topic and relate it to events concerning Greece during this time period. Our finding is that events are only relevant for financial markets when they are covered in the media, whereas events without media coverage have no effect. News coverage without immediate events is equally irrelevant for financial markets.

JEL Classification: D 84; Z 13; C 55; G 01; L 822

Keywords: Greek Debt Crisis; machine learning; expectations; economic sociology; financial crises; media; topic models; big data; Griechische Schuldenkrise; Maschinelles Lernen; Erwartungen; Wirtschaftssoziologie; Finanzkrisen; Medien; Topic Modelle; Big Data

About the article

Volker Daniel

Volker Daniel is a doctoral researcher at the Chair of Monetary Economics at Martin-Luther-University of Halle-Wittenberg and at the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW) Berlin. His research focuses on economic history, quantitative text analysis and empirical economics under DFG priority programme 1859. He studied economics in Berlin, Salamanca and Toronto.

Magnus Neubert

Magnus Neubert is a master student of economics and research assistant at the Chair of Monetary Economics at the Martin-Luther-University of Halle-Wittenberg.

Dr. Agnes Orban

Dr. Agnes Orban is post-doctoral researcher at the Cologne Center for Comparative Politics. In 2016, she received her PHD for research on the impact of moral categories on the regulation of derivatives trading in the United States 2008-2010. Her current research under the DFG priority programme 1859 focuses on the diffusion of innovative financial instruments among governments in international comparison.


Published Online: 2018-12-31

Published in Print: 2018-11-27


Citation Information: Jahrbuch für Wirtschaftsgeschichte / Economic History Yearbook, Volume 59, Issue 2, Pages 525–566, ISSN (Online) 2196-6842, ISSN (Print) 0075-2800, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1515/jbwg-2018-0018.

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