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Journal of Causal Inference

Ed. by Imai, Kosuke / Pearl, Judea / Petersen, Maya Liv / Sekhon, Jasjeet / van der Laan, Mark J.

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The Sure-Thing Principle

Judea Pearl
  • Corresponding author
  • Computer Science Department, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, 90095–1596, USA
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Published Online: 2016-02-16 | DOI: https://doi.org/10.1515/jci-2016-0005


In 1954, Jim Savage introduced the Sure Thing Principle to demonstrate that preferences among actions could constitute an axiomatic basis for a Bayesian foundation of statistical inference. Here, we trace the history of the principle, discuss some of its nuances, and evaluate its significance in the light of modern understanding of causal reasoning.

Keywords: JCI; Judea Pearl; UCLA


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About the article

Published Online: 2016-02-16

Published in Print: 2016-03-01

Citation Information: Journal of Causal Inference, Volume 4, Issue 1, Pages 81–86, ISSN (Online) 2193-3685, ISSN (Print) 2193-3677, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1515/jci-2016-0005.

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