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Journal of Globalization and Development

Ed. by Stiglitz, Joseph / Emran, M. Shahe / Guzman, Martin / Jayadev, Arjun / Ocampo, José Antonio / Rodrik, Dani

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The Impact of the Global Commodity and Financial Crises on Poverty in Vietnam

James Thurlow
  • UNU-WIDER and International Food Policy Research Institute
/ Finn Tarp
  • UNU-WIDER and University of Copenhagen
/ Simon McCoy
  • University of Copenhagen
/ Nguyen Manh Hai
  • Central Institute of Economic Management
/ Clemens Breisinger
  • International Food Policy Research Institute
/ Channing Arndt
  • University of Copenhagen
Published Online: 2011-08-31 | DOI: https://doi.org/10.2202/1948-1837.1058

Economic growth in Vietnam was resilient to the global commodity and financial crises, but it is unclear why. Impacts on employment and poverty are also disputed. We develop a dynamic computable general equilibrium model to decompose growth and distributional outcomes. Results indicate that the 2008 commodity crisis raised employment and reduced poverty by favoring labor-intensive exports. The 2009 financial crisis reversed these gains and pushed a million workers into unemployment and 3 million people below the poverty line. Overall, the crises and government stimulus package left growth and poverty in Vietnam virtually changed from a baseline (no crises) path.

Keywords: economic crisis; growth; poverty; Vietnam

Published Online: 2011-08-31

Citation Information: Journal of Globalization and Development. Volume 2, Issue 1, ISSN (Online) 1948-1837, DOI: https://doi.org/10.2202/1948-1837.1058, August 2011

©2011 Walter de Gruyter GmbH & Co. KG, Berlin/Boston. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial License, which permits unrestricted non-commercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0)

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