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Journal of Globalization and Development

Ed. by Stiglitz, Joseph / Emran, M. Shahe / Guzman, Martin / Jayadev, Arjun / Ocampo, José Antonio / Rodrik, Dani

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Global Growth and Distribution: China, India, and the Emergence of a Global Middle Class

Maurizio Bussolo1 / Rafael E. de Hoyos2 / Denis Medvedev3 / Dominique van der Mensbrugghe4

1The World Bank

2The World Bank

3The World Bank

4Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)

Citation Information: Journal of Globalization and Development. Volume 2, Issue 2, ISSN (Online) 1948-1837, DOI: 10.1515/1948-1837.1041, January 2012

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Over the past two decades, global inequality changed little despite significant structural shifts. Sustained growth in China and India lifted millions out of poverty, while many African countries fell behind. This paper assesses the distribution effects of a continuation of these trends. Growth in China and India will still drive the convergence of per capita incomes at the global level. Millions of Chinese and Indian consumers will join the global middle class. However, these positive developments will be somewhat offset by widening income disparities within countries, as fast growth is often characterized by high urbanization and growing demand for skills.

Keywords: China; India; global income distribution; middle class

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