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Potential Uses of Administrative Records for Triple System Modeling for Estimation of Census Coverage Error in 2020

Richard A. Griffin
  • U.S. Census Bureau, 4210 Southwinds Place Unit 109, White Plains, Maryland 20695, U.S.A.
  • Email:
Published Online: 2014-05-08 | DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/jos-2014-0012


Heterogeneity in capture probabilities is known to produce bias in the dual system estimates that have been used to estimate census coverage in U.S. Censuses since 1980. Triple system estimation using an administrative records list as a third source along with the census and coverage measurement survey has the potential to produce estimates with less bias. This is particularly important for hard-to-reach populations.

The article presents potential statistical methods for the estimation of net census undercount using three systems for obtaining population information: (1) a decennial census; (2) an independent enumeration of the population in a sample of block clusters; and (3) administrative records. The 2010 Census Match Study will create census-like files for the entire nation using federal and commercial sources of administrative records. The 2010 Census Coverage Measurement Survey is an enumeration in a sample of block clusters that is independent of the 2010 decennial Census.

Keywords: Heterogeneity; independence; log-linear model


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About the article

Received: 2013-02-01

Accepted: 2014-02-01

Published Online: 2014-05-08

Published in Print: 2014-06-01

Citation Information: Journal of Official Statistics, ISSN (Online) 2001-7367, DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/jos-2014-0012. Export Citation

© by Richard A. Griffin. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial License, which permits unrestricted non-commercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. (CC BY-NC-ND 3.0)

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Journal of Official Statistics, 2015, Volume 31, Number 3

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