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Journal of Perinatal Medicine

Official Journal of the World Association of Perinatal Medicine

Editor-in-Chief: Dudenhausen, Joachim W.

Editorial Board Member: / Bancalari, Eduardo / Milner, Anne / Genc, Mehmet R. / Chervenak, Frank A. / Chappelle, Joseph / Bergmann, Renate L. / Bernardes, J.F. / Bevilacqua, G. / Blickstein, Isaac / Cabero Roura, Luis / Carbonell-Estrany, Xavier / Carrera, Jose M. / D`Addario, Vincenzo / D'Alton, MD, Mary E. / Dimitrou, G. / Grunebaum, Amos / Hentschel, Roland / Köpcke, W. / Kawabata, Ichiro / Keirse, Marc J.N.C. / Kurjak M.D., Asim / Lee, Ben H. / Levene, Malcolm / Lockwood, Charles J. / Marsal, Karel / Makatsariya, Alexander / Nishida, Hiroshi / Papp, Zoltán / Pejaver, Ranjan Kumar / Pooh, Ritsuko K. / Romero, Roberto / Saugstad, Ola D. / Schenker, Joseph G. / Sen, Cihat / Seri, Istvan / Vetter, Klaus / Winn, Hung N. / Young, Bruce K. / Zimmermann, Roland

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In This Section
Volume 38, Issue 4 (Jul 2010)


Validation of a model to predict hospitalization due to RSV of infants born at 33–35 weeks' gestation

Xavier Carbonell-Estrany
  • Neonatology Service, Hospital Clínic, Institut Clínic de Ginecologia Obstetricia i Neonatologia, Barcelona, Spain
/ Eric A.F. Simões
  • Section of Infectious Diseases, Department of Pediatrics, The University of Colorado School of Medicine and The Children's Hospital, Denver, Colorado, USA
/ John R. Fullarton
  • Strategen Limited, Basingstoke, UK
/ Cyril Ferdynus
  • Service de Biostatistique et Informatique Médicale, Cellule d'Evaluation des Réseaux de Soins, CHU du Bocage, 21079 Dijon, Cedex/France
/ Jean-Bernard Gouyon
  • Department of Pediatrics, CHU, Dijon, France
/ The European RSV Risk Factor Study Group
  • European Working Group: Xavier Carbonell-Estrany (co-Chair), Neonatology Service, Hospital Clínic, Institut Clínic de Ginecologia Obstetricia i Neonatologia, Neonatology Service, Barcelona, Spain; Eric A.F. Simões (co-Chair), Department of Pediatrics, Section of Infectious Diseases, The University of Colorado School of Medicine and The Children's Hospital, Denver, Colorado, USA; Ignazio Barberi, Neonatal Intensive Care Unit, Department of Pediatrics, University of Messina, Italy; Angelika Berger, Department of Neonatology and Pediatric Intensive Care, University Children's Hospital, Vienna, Austria; Louis Bont, Wilhelmina Children's Hospital, University Medical Center, Utrecht, The Netherlands; Jean Bottu, Department of Neonatology of Luxembourg, Luxembourg; Karina Butler, Our Lady's Hospital for Sick Children, Dublin, Ireland; Veerle Cossey, Neonatal Intensive Care Unit, University Hospital Gasthuisberg, Leuven, Belgium; Gunther Doring, Children's Hospital, Technical University, Munich, Germany; Jean-Bernard Gouyon, Department of Pediatrics, CHU, Dijon, France; Bernard Guillois, Laboratory of Human and Molecular Virology, Caen, France; E. Farri-Kostopoulou, St. Andrew Hospital, Patras, Greece; Marcello Lanari, Pediatrics and Neonatology Unit, Hospital of Imola, Italy; Patrice Morville, Pediatric Cardiology, American Memorial Hospital, Reims, France; Bernhard Resch, Division of Neonatology, Department of Pediatrics, University Hospital Graz, Austria; Kate Sauer, Pediatrics, University Hospital, Leuven, Belgium; Richard Thwaites, Pediatric Department, St. Mary's Hospital, Portsmouth, UK
Published Online: 2010-03-18 | DOI: https://doi.org/10.1515/jpm.2010.074


Background: A model to predict hospitalization due to respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) of infants born at 33– 35 weeks' gestation was developed using seven risk factors from the Spanish FLIP study “birth ±10 weeks from the beginning of the RSV season”, “birth weight”, “breast fed ≤2 months”, “number of siblings ≥2 years”, “number of family members with atopy”, “number of family members with wheezing”, and “gender”. The aim of this study was to validate the model using French data.

Methods: The FLIP model [predictive accuracy 71%, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) 0.791] was tested against the French data (77 hospitalized infants with RSV born at 33–35 weeks and 154 age-matched controls) using discriminatory function analysis by applying the FLIP coefficients to the French data and by generating the seven variable model from the French data.

Results: Applying the FLIP coefficients to the French dataset, the model correctly classified 69% of cases (ROC 0.627). The predictive power increased to 73% (ROC 0.654) when “number of siblings ≥2 years” was substituted for “number of children at school”. The number needed to treat (NNT) in order to prevent 70% of hospitalizations was 18. The model derived using French data could correctly classify 62% of cases in the French data (ROC 0.658).

Conclusions: The model was successfully validated and may potentially optimize immunoprophylaxis in French infants born at 33–35 week's gestation.

Keywords: Hospitalization; immunoprophylaxis; predictive model validation; premature infants; respiratory syncytial virus; risk factors

About the article

Corresponding author: Jean-Bernard Gouyon Neonatal and Pediatric Intensive Care Unit University of Dijon 21079 Dijon Cedex/France

Received: 2009-12-11

Revised: 2010-01-20

Accepted: 2010-01-20

Published Online: 2010-03-18

Published Online: 2010-03-18

Published in Print: 2010-07-01

Citation Information: Journal of Perinatal Medicine, ISSN (Online) 1619-3997, ISSN (Print) 0300-5577, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1515/jpm.2010.074. Export Citation

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