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About the article
Published Online: 2014-02-21
Published in Print: 2014-01-01
In basketball, it is common to distinguish between plays and possessions (Kubatko et al. 2007), the latter referring to the period of game play between which a team gains control of the ball until the time at which control passes to the opposing team. In this paper, we look only at plays because (i) we are more interested in the outcome of specific tactical choices and (ii) the proportion of plays ending in non-possession ending outcomes such as corner or rebound is relatively small anyways.
We exclude exclusions resulting from exclusions in this calculation so that ε is technically the conditional probability that a power-play situation results in a goal given that the power-play resulted in a return to an even situation or counterattack.
Exceptions included penalty shots and shooting percentage for centre and direct shots, which all received values of 0 for both teams in about 40% of contests in our sample.
There was also one game in which both teams had the same ECR.
The correlation is similar if one looks just at perimeter shooting percentage.
We excluded all games against last place finishers Kazakhstan and Great Britain as well as the Serbia vs. Romania game because it occurred after Romania was eliminated from playoff contention.
Note that we round to the nearest integer.
The two exceptions being USA vs Hungary and USA vs Montenegro.
In fact, one can compute the probability that team i beats j by k goals for any k≥0 in a similar manner.
Incorrect: Serbia vs Hungary and Montenegro vs Hungary. With α=0.03, we also incorrectly predicted Hungary vs USA so it appears that the Exclusion Model with low offensive weight does especially poorly in predicting matches involving Hungary.
... and USA vs Montenegro in the preliminary round.