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Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports

An official journal of the American Statistical Association

Editor-in-Chief: Steve Rigdon, PhD

CiteScore 2017: 0.67

SCImago Journal Rank (SJR) 2017: 0.290
Source Normalized Impact per Paper (SNIP) 2017: 0.853

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Volume 8, Issue 1


Volume 1 (2005)

A Proposed Decision Rule for the Timing of Soccer Substitutions

Bret R. Myers
Published Online: 2012-03-12 | DOI: https://doi.org/10.1515/1559-0410.1349

Managers in soccer face a critical in-game decision concerning player substitutions. While past research has investigated the overall effect of various strategy changes during the course of a match, no studies have focused solely on the crucial element of timing. This paper uses the data mining technique of decision trees to develop a decision rule to guide managers on when to make each of their three substitutes in a match. The proposed decision rule demonstrates between 38% and 47% effectiveness when followed versus 17% and 24% effectiveness when not followed based on over 1200 observations collected from some of the world’s top professional leagues and competitions.

Keywords: analytics; data mining; soccer; substitutions; football

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Published Online: 2012-03-12

Citation Information: Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, Volume 8, Issue 1, ISSN (Online) 1559-0410, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1515/1559-0410.1349.

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©2012 Walter de Gruyter GmbH & Co. KG, Berlin/Boston.Get Permission

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