Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports
An official journal of the American Statistical Association
Editor-in-Chief: Steve Rigdon, PhD
4 Issues per year
CiteScore 2017: 0.67
SCImago Journal Rank (SJR) 2017: 0.290
Source Normalized Impact per Paper (SNIP) 2017: 0.853
Random Walk Picture of Basketball Scoring
We present evidence, based on play-by-play data from all 6087 games from the 2006/07– 2009/10 seasons of the National Basketball Association (NBA), that basketball scoring is well described by a continuous-time anti-persistent random walk. The time intervals between successive scoring events follow an exponential distribution, with essentially no memory between different scoring intervals. By including the heterogeneity of team strengths, we build a detailed computational random-walk model that accounts for a variety of statistical properties of scoring in basketball games, such as the distribution of the score difference between game opponents, the fraction of game time that one team is in the lead, the number of lead changes in each game, and the season win/loss records of each team.
Here you can find all Crossref-listed publications in which this article is cited. If you would like to receive automatic email messages as soon as this article is cited in other publications, simply activate the “Citation Alert” on the top of this page.