Jump to ContentJump to Main Navigation
Show Summary Details
More options …

Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports

An official journal of the American Statistical Association

Editor-in-Chief: Steve Rigdon, PhD

4 Issues per year


CiteScore 2017: 0.67

SCImago Journal Rank (SJR) 2017: 0.290
Source Normalized Impact per Paper (SNIP) 2017: 0.853

Online
ISSN
1559-0410
See all formats and pricing
More options …
Volume 8, Issue 1

Issues

Volume 1 (2005)

Solving the Problem of Inadequate Scoring Rules for Assessing Probabilistic Football Forecast Models

Anthony Costa Constantinou / Norman Elliott Fenton
Published Online: 2012-03-12 | DOI: https://doi.org/10.1515/1559-0410.1418

Despite the massive popularity of probabilistic (association) football forecasting models, and the relative simplicity of the outcome of such forecasts (they require only three probability values corresponding to home win, draw, and away win) there is no agreed scoring rule to determine their forecast accuracy. Moreover, the various scoring rules used for validation in previous studies are inadequate since they fail to recognise that football outcomes represent a ranked (ordinal) scale. This raises severe concerns about the validity of conclusions from previous studies. There is a well-established generic scoring rule, the Rank Probability Score (RPS), which has been missed by previous researchers, but which properly assesses football forecasting models.

Keywords: association football forecasting; forecast assessment; forecast verification; predictive evaluation; probability forecasting; rank probability score; sports forecasting

About the article

Published Online: 2012-03-12


Citation Information: Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, Volume 8, Issue 1, ISSN (Online) 1559-0410, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1515/1559-0410.1418.

Export Citation

©2012 Walter de Gruyter GmbH & Co. KG, Berlin/Boston.Get Permission

Citing Articles

Here you can find all Crossref-listed publications in which this article is cited. If you would like to receive automatic email messages as soon as this article is cited in other publications, simply activate the “Citation Alert” on the top of this page.

[1]
Ondřej Hubáček, Gustav Šourek, and Filip Železný
Machine Learning, 2018
[3]
Marcio Alves Diniz, Rafael Izbicki, Danilo Lopes, and Luis Ernesto Salasar
Journal of the Operational Research Society, 2018, Page 1
[5]
Erik Štrumbelj
International Journal of Forecasting, 2014, Volume 30, Number 4, Page 934
[6]
Babatunde Buraimo, David Peel, and Rob Simmons
International Journal of Financial Studies, 2013, Volume 1, Number 4, Page 168
[7]
Anthony Costa Constantinou, Norman Elliott Fenton, and Martin Neil
Knowledge-Based Systems, 2013, Volume 50, Page 60
[8]
Anthony C. Constantinou, Norman E. Fenton, and Martin Neil
Knowledge-Based Systems, 2012, Volume 36, Page 322

Comments (0)

Please log in or register to comment.
Log in