Jump to ContentJump to Main Navigation
Show Summary Details
In This Section

Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports

An official journal of the American Statistical Association

Editor-in-Chief: Glickman, PhD, Mark

4 Issues per year


CiteScore 2016: 0.44

SCImago Journal Rank (SJR) 2015: 0.288
Source Normalized Impact per Paper (SNIP) 2015: 0.358

Online
ISSN
1559-0410
See all formats and pricing
In This Section

Game importance as a dimension of uncertainty of outcome

Xinrong Lei
  • Corresponding author
  • Child and Family Research Center, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 1010 W. Nevada, Suite 2080, Urbana, IL 61801, USA
  • Email:
/ Brad R. Humphreys
  • Corresponding author
  • Department of Economics, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta T6G 0T3 Canada
  • Email:
Published Online: 2013-03-30 | DOI: https://doi.org/10.1515/jqas-2012-0019

Abstract

Sports teams have incentives to put more effort into games with an immediate effect on standings compared to games that do not, possibly affecting outcome uncertainty. We develop a measure of game outcome uncertainty, game importance (GI), that captures how each game affects a team’s standing and can be calculated for individual games. Results show that observed variation in GI explains observed variation in attendance, game outcomes, and margin of victory at MLB games over the 1994 through 2010 seasons, suggesting that GI is an influential indicator in fans’ attendance decisions, consistent with the uncertainty of outcome hypothesis.

Keywords: game attendance; game importance, game outcome; major league baseball; uncertainty of outcome

References

  • Agresti, A. 2002. Categorical Data Analysis (2nd ed.). Hoboken, New Jersey: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

  • Baimbridge, M. 1997. “Match Attendance at Euro 96: Was the Crowd Waving or Drowning?” Applied Economics Letters 4:555–8. [Crossref]

  • Baimbridge, M. and S. Cameron. 1996. “Satellite Television and the Demand for Football: A Whole New Ball Game?” Scottish Journal of Political Economy 43(3):317. [Crossref]

  • Ballinger, G. 2004. “Using Generalized Estimating Equations for Logitudinal Data Analysis.” Organizational Research Methods 7(2):127–150. [Web of Science] [Crossref]

  • Bradley, R. and M. Terry. 1952. “The Rank Analysis of Incomplete Block Diagrams I. The Method of Paired Comparisons.” Biometrica 39:324–345.

  • Cairns, J. A. 1987. “Evaluating Changes in League Structure: The Reorganization of the Scottish Football League.” Applied Economics 19(2):259. [Crossref]

  • Clarke, S. 2005. “Home Advantage in the Australian Football League.” Journal of Sports Sciences 23(4):375–385. [PubMed] [Crossref]

  • Clarke, R. and J. Norman. 1995. “Home Ground Advantage of Individual Clubs in English Soccer.” The Statistician 44(4): 509–521. [Crossref]

  • David, H. A. and M. Smith. 1994. “The Home-Court Advantage: How Large is it, and Does it Vary From Team to Team?” The American Statistician 48(1):22–28.

  • Dawson, A. and P. Downward.2005. “Measuring Short-Run Uncertainty of Outcome in Sporting Leagues A Comment.” Journal of Sports Economics 6(3):303–313. [Crossref]

  • Dobson, S. M. and J. A. Goddard. 1992. “The Demand for Standing and Seated Viewing Accommodation in the English Football League.” Applied Economics 24:1155–1163. [Crossref]

  • Forrest, D. and R. Simmons. 2002. “Outcome Uncertainty and Attendance Demand in Sport: The Case of English Soccer.” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series D (the Statistician) 51(2):229–241.

  • Forrest, D., J. Beaumont, J. Goddard, and R. Simmons. 2005. “Home Advantage and the Debate About Competitive Balance in Professional Sports Leagues.” Journal of Sports Sciences 23(4):439–445. [PubMed] [Crossref]

  • Hart, R. A., J. Hutton, and T. Sharot. 1975. “A Statistical Analysis of Association Football Attendances.” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series C (Applied Statistics) 24(1):17.

  • Jennett, N. 1984. “Attendances, Uncertainty of Outcome and Policy in Scottish League Football.” Scottish Journal of Political Economy 31(2):176–198. [Crossref]

  • Knobloch-Westerwick, S., P. David, M. S. Eastin, R. Tamborini, and D. Greenwood. 2009. “Sports Spectators’ Suspense: Affect and Uncertainty in Sports Entertainment.” Journal of Communication 59(4):750–767. [Web of Science] [Crossref]

  • Koning, R. 2000. “Balance in Competition in Dutch Soccer.” The Statistician 49(3):419–431.

  • Lee, Y. and R. Fort. 2008. “Attendance and the Uncertainty-of-Outcome Hypothesis in Baseball.” Review of Industrial Organization 33(4):281–295. [Crossref] [Web of Science]

  • Lemke, R. J., M. Leonard, and K. Tlhokwane. 2010. “Estimating Attendance at Major League Baseball Games for the 2007 Season.” Journal of Sports Economics 11(3): 316–348. [Crossref]

  • Meehan, J. J., R. Nelson, and T. Richardson. 2007. “Competitive Balance and Game Attendance in Major League Baseball.” Journal of Sports Economics 8(6):563–580. [Web of Science] [Crossref]

  • Neale, W. 1964. “The Peculiar Economics of Professional Sports.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 78:1–14. [Crossref]

  • Nevill, A. and R. Holder. 1999. “Home Advantage in Sport: An Overview of Studies on the Advantage of Playing at Home.” Sports Med. 26(4):221–236. [Crossref]

  • Peel, D. and D. Thomas. 1988. “Outcome Uncertainty and the Demand for Football – An Analysis of Match Attendances in the English Football League.” Scottish Journal of Political Economy 35(3):243–9.

  • Peel, D. A. and D. A. Thomas. 1992. “The Demand for Football: Some Evidence on Outcome Uncertainty.” Empirical Economics 17(2):323–331. [Crossref]

  • Peel, D. and D. Thomas. 1996. “Attendance Demand: An Investigation of Repeat Fixtures.” Applied Economics Letters 3(6):391. [Crossref]

  • Peel, D. and D. Thomas. 1997. “Handicaps, Outcome Uncertainty and Attendance Demand.” Applied Economics Letters 4(9): 567. [Crossref]

  • Rottenberg, S. 1956. “The Baseball Players’ Labor Market.” Journal of Political Economy 64:242–258. [Crossref]

  • Sage, G. 1977. Introduction to Motor Behaviour: A Neuropsychological Approach (2nd ed.). Addison-Wesley.

  • Simmons, R. 2006. “The Demand for Spectator Sports.” Pp. 77–89 in Handbook on the economics of sport, edited by W. Andreff and S. Szymanski. Montpellier Parade Cheltenham Glos GL50 1UA UK: Edward Elgar Publishing Limited Glensanda House.

  • Soebbing, B. 2008. “Competitive Balance and Attendance in Major League Baseball: An Empirical Test of the Uncertainty of Outcome Hypothesis.” International Journal of Sport Finance, May.

  • Stokes, M., C. Davis, and G. Koch. 2006. Categorical Data Analysis using the SAS System (5th ed.).

  • Szymanski, S. 2003. “The Economic Design of Sporting Contests.” Journal of Economic Literature 41(4):1137–1187. [Crossref]

  • Tainsky, S. and J. Winfree. 2010. “Short-Run Demand and Uncertainty of Outcome in Major League Baseball.” Review of Industrial Organization 37(3):197–214. [Web of Science] [Crossref]

  • Triplett, N. 1898. “The Dynamogenic Factors in Pacemaking and Competition.” American Journal of Psychology 9:507–533. [Crossref]

  • Wilson, P. and B. Sim. 1995. “The Demands of Semi-Pro League Football in Malaysia 1989–91: A Panel Data Approach.” Applied Economics 27(1):131. [Crossref]

  • Wu, C., M. Gumpertz, and D. Boos. 2001. “Comparison of GEE, Minque, ML, and REML Estimating Equations for Normally Distributed Data.” The American Statistician 55(2): 125–130. [Crossref]

About the article

Corresponding authors: Xinrong Lei, Child and Family Research Center, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 1010 W. Nevada, Suite 2080, Urbana, IL 61801, USA; and Brad R. Humphreys: Department of Economics, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta T6G 0T3 Canada


Published Online: 2013-03-30



Citation Information: Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, ISSN (Online) 1559-0410, ISSN (Print) 2194-6388, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1515/jqas-2012-0019. Export Citation

Citing Articles

Here you can find all Crossref-listed publications in which this article is cited. If you would like to receive automatic email messages as soon as this article is cited in other publications, simply activate the “Citation Alert” on the top of this page.

[1]
Daniel Waugh, Geoff Dickson, and Sean Phelps
European Sport Management Quarterly, 2014, Volume 14, Number 5, Page 538

Comments (0)

Please log in or register to comment.
Log in