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Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports

An official journal of the American Statistical Association

Editor-in-Chief: Mark Glickman PhD

SCImago Journal Rank (SJR) 2015: 0.288
Source Normalized Impact per Paper (SNIP) 2015: 0.358
Impact per Publication (IPP) 2015: 0.250

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Analysis of the NCAA Men’s Final Four TV audience

1 / R. Paul Sabin1 / Keith M. Willes2

1Department of Statistics, Brigham Young University, Provo, UT 84602, USA

2BYU Broadcasting, Brigham Young University, Provo, UT 84602, USA

Corresponding author: Scott D. Grimshaw, Department of Statistics, Brigham Young University, Provo, UT 84602, USA, Tel.: +1-801-422-6251

Citation Information: Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports. Volume 9, Issue 2, Pages 115–126, ISSN (Online) 1559-0410, ISSN (Print) 2194-6388, DOI: 10.1515/jqas-2013-0015, June 2013

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This is the first paper to investigate factors that affect the size of the TV audience for the NCAA Men’s Final Four. The model is based on Nielsen data for 54 markets for 10 years. One of the most interesting results is that college basketball teams have a measurable effect in their local markets, but even the biggest name programs do not have a national effect. However, the little known teams that succeed in the tournament, known as Cinderellas, have a national effect likely due to the media attention and success on the court. Broadcasters and advertisers are interested in maximizing the TV audience, and the model allows prediction to compare games between big market teams, big name teams, David vs. Goliath games, and a Championship game between two Cinderella teams.

Keywords: TV; Nielsen ratings; NCAA basketball; March Madness; demand for sport

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