Jump to ContentJump to Main Navigation
Show Summary Details
More options …

Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports

An official journal of the American Statistical Association

Editor-in-Chief: Steve Rigdon, PhD


CiteScore 2018: 1.67

SCImago Journal Rank (SJR) 2018: 0.587
Source Normalized Impact per Paper (SNIP) 2018: 1.970

Online
ISSN
1559-0410
See all formats and pricing
More options …
Volume 10, Issue 1

Issues

Volume 1 (2005)

Declaration guidelines in test cricket

Harsha Perera
  • PhD candidate, Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, Simon Fraser University, 8888 University Drive, Burnaby BC, Canada V5A1S6
  • Other articles by this author:
  • De Gruyter OnlineGoogle Scholar
/ Paramjit S. Gill
  • Associate Professor, Irving K. Barber School of Arts and Sciences, University of British Columbia Okanagan, 3333 University Way, Kelowna BC, Canada V1V1V7
  • Other articles by this author:
  • De Gruyter OnlineGoogle Scholar
/ Tim B. Swartz
  • Corresponding author
  • Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, Simon Fraser University, 8888 University Drive, Burnaby BC, Canada V5A1S6
  • Email
  • Other articles by this author:
  • De Gruyter OnlineGoogle Scholar
Published Online: 2014-01-20 | DOI: https://doi.org/10.1515/jqas-2013-0118

Abstract

This paper considers the decision problem of when to declare during the third innings of a test cricket match. There are various factors that affect the decision of the declaring team including the target score, the number of overs remaining, the relative desire to win versus draw, and the scoring characteristics of the particular match. Decision rules are developed and these are assessed against historical matches. We observe that there are discrepancies between the optimal time to declare and what takes place in practice.

Keywords: cricket; decision rules; Gibbs sampling; parameter estimation

References

  • Clarke, S. R. 1998. “Test Statistics.” in Statistics in Sport, edited by J. Bennett. London: Arnold Applications of Statistics Series.Google Scholar

  • Lewis, M. M. 2003. Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game. New York: W.W. Norton & Company, Inc.Google Scholar

  • Scarf, P. and X. Shi. 2005. “Modelling Match Outcomes and Decision Support for Setting a Final Innings Target in Test Cricket.” IMA Journal of Management Mathematics 16:161–178.Google Scholar

  • Scarf, P. and S. Akhtar. 2011. “An Analysis of Strategy in the First Three Innings in Test Cricket: Declaration and the Follow-On.” Journal of the Operational Research Society 62:1931–1940.Google Scholar

  • Scarf, P., X. Shi, and S. Akhtar. 2011. “On the Distribution of Runs Scored and Batting Strategy in Test Cricket.” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A 174:471–497.Web of ScienceGoogle Scholar

About the article

Corresponding author: Tim B. Swartz, Professor, Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, Simon Fraser University, 8888 University Drive, Burnaby BC, Canada V5A1S6, e-mail:

aSwartz has been partially supported by grants from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada


Published Online: 2014-01-20

Published in Print: 2014-01-01


At the completion of the second innings of a scheduled 5-day match, if the team batting first leads by at least 200 runs, then it has the option of forcing the second innings batting team to bat again in the third innings. The sequence of batting innings according to Team A, Team B, Team B, and Team A (if required) is the result of team A enforcing the follow-on.

If a team has accumulated an adequate amount of runs during its first innings (Team A) or second innings (Team B), then the team may decide to declare at that time, but these less common scenarios are not the focus of this study.


Citation Information: Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, Volume 10, Issue 1, Pages 15–26, ISSN (Online) 1559-0410, ISSN (Print) 2194-6388, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1515/jqas-2013-0118.

Export Citation

©2014 by Walter de Gruyter Berlin Boston.Get Permission

Citing Articles

Here you can find all Crossref-listed publications in which this article is cited. If you would like to receive automatic email messages as soon as this article is cited in other publications, simply activate the “Citation Alert” on the top of this page.

Comments (0)

Please log in or register to comment.
Log in