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Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports

An official journal of the American Statistical Association

Editor-in-Chief: Mark Glickman PhD

4 Issues per year


SCImago Journal Rank (SJR) 2015: 0.288
Source Normalized Impact per Paper (SNIP) 2015: 0.358
Impact per Publication (IPP) 2015: 0.250

Online
ISSN
1559-0410
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An Oracle method to predict NFL games

Eduardo Cabral Balreira
  • Mathematics, Trinity University, One Trinity Place, San Antonio, TX 78212, USA
  • :
/ Brian K. Miceli
  • Mathematics, Trinity University, One Trinity Place, San Antonio, TX 78212, USA
/ Thomas Tegtmeyer
  • Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, Truman State University, Kirksville, MO, USA
Published Online: 2014-03-27 | DOI: https://doi.org/10.1515/jqas-2013-0063

Abstract

Multiple models are discussed for ranking teams in a league and introduce a new model called the Oracle method. This is a Markovovian method that can be customized to incorporate multiple team traits into its ranking. Using a foresight prediction of NFL game outcomes for the 2002–2013 seasons, it is shown that the Oracle method correctly picked 64.1% of the games under consideration, which is higher than any of the methods compared, including ESPN Power Rankings, Massey, Colley, and PageRank.

Keywords: foresight predictions; NFL; oracle; PageRank; rankings

Corresponding author: Eduardo Cabral Balreira, Mathematics, Trinity University, One Trinity Place, San Antonio, TX 78212, USA, Tel.: +2109998243, e-mail:


Published Online: 2014-03-27

Published in Print: 2014-06-01


Citation Information: Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports. Volume 10, Issue 2, Pages 183–196, ISSN (Online) 1559-0410, ISSN (Print) 2194-6388, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1515/jqas-2013-0063, March 2014

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