Jump to ContentJump to Main Navigation
Show Summary Details
More options …

Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports

An official journal of the American Statistical Association

Editor-in-Chief: Steve Rigdon, PhD

CiteScore 2017: 0.67

SCImago Journal Rank (SJR) 2017: 0.290
Source Normalized Impact per Paper (SNIP) 2017: 0.853

See all formats and pricing
More options …
Volume 10, Issue 2


Volume 1 (2005)

The older they rise the younger they fall: age and performance trends in men’s professional tennis from 1991 to 2012

Stephanie Ann Kovalchik
Published Online: 2014-02-21 | DOI: https://doi.org/10.1515/jqas-2013-0091


In 2012, 3 out of 10 singles players in the top 100 on the Association of Tennis Professionals (ATP) World Tour were 30 years old or older – nearly a four-fold increase over 20 years ago, suggesting that the “old at 30” view in men’s tennis may be an old reality. In this paper, I investigate aging patterns among top ATP singles players between 1991 and 2012 and consider how surface effects, career length, and age at peak performance have influenced aging trends. Following a decade and a half of little change, the average age of top singles players has increased at a pace of 0.34 years per season since the mid-2000s, reaching an all-time high of 27.9 years in 2012. Underlying this age shift was a coincident rise in the proportion of 30-and-overs (29% in 2012) and the virtual elimination of teenagers from the top 100 (0% in 2012). Because the typical age players begin competing professionally has varied little from 18 years in the past two decades, career length has increased in step with player age. Demographics among top players on each of today’s major surfaces indicate that parallel aging trends have occurred on clay, grass, and hard court from the late 2000s forward. As a result of the changing age demographic over the past decade, the age of tennis’s highest-ranked singles players is now comparable to the age of elite long-distance runners. This evolution likely reflects changes in tennis play that have made endurance and fitness increasingly essential for winning success.

Keywords: aging; Association of Tennis Professionals; changepoint analysis; career lengths; peak performance


  • Blackwell, J. and D. Knudson. 2002. “Effect of Type 3 (Oversize) Tennis Ball on Serve Performance and Upper Extremity Muscle Activity.” Sports Biomechanics 10:563–581.Google Scholar

  • Corral, J. 2009. “Competitive balance and match uncertainty in grand-slam tennis: effects of seeding system, gender, and court surface.” Journal of Sports Economics 10: 187–191.Web of ScienceGoogle Scholar

  • Cross, R. 2003. Materials and Tennis Strings. Boca Raton, FL: Woodhead Publishing, Materials in Sports Equipment, 1:196–221.Google Scholar

  • Fernandez, J., A. Mendez-Villanueva, and B. Pluim. 2006. “Intensity of Tennis Match Play.” British Journal of Sports Medicine 40:387–391.Google Scholar

  • Galenson, D. W. 1993. “The Impact of Economic and Technological Change on the Careers of American Men Tennis Players, 1960–1991.” Journal of Sport History 20:127–150.Google Scholar

  • International Federation of Tennis. 2013. 2013 Official Grand Slam Rule Book. London, England: Grand Slam Committee (http://www.itftennis.com/media/166420/166420.pdf).

  • Hawkins, D. M., P. H. Qiu, and C. W. Kang. 2013. “The Changepoint Model for Statistical Process Control?” Journal of Quality Technology 35:355–366.Google Scholar

  • Hunter, S., A. A. Stevens, K. Magennis, K. W. Skelton, and M. Fauth. 2011. “Is There a Sex Difference in the Age of Elite Marathon Runners?” Medicine & Science in Sports & Exercise 43:656–664.Web of ScienceGoogle Scholar

  • R Development Core Team. 2012. R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing. Vienna, Austria: R Foundation for Statistical Computing, (http://www.R-project.org/).

  • Schulz, R. and C. Curnow. 1988. “Peak Performance and Age among Superathletes: Track and Field, Swimming, Baseball, Tennis, and Golf.” Journal of Gerontology 43:113–120.Google Scholar

  • Smekal, G., S. P. von Duvillard, C. Rihacek, R. Pokan, P. Hofmann, R. Baron, H. Tschan, N. Bachl, et al. 2001. “A Physiological Profile of Tennis Match Play.” Medicine and Science in Sports and Exercise 33:999–1005.Google Scholar

  • Villaroel, C., R. Mora, and G. C. González Parra. 2011. “Elite Triathlete Performance Related to Age.” Journal of Human Sport & Exercise 6:363–373.Google Scholar

About the article

Corresponding author: Stephanie Ann Kovalchik, RAND Corporation, 1776 Main Street, Santa Monica, CA 90401, USA, Tel.: +3103930411 (6948), e-mail:

Published Online: 2014-02-21

Published in Print: 2014-06-01

Associated Press, “Tommy Haas beats Novak Djokovic” ESPN, April 27, 2012.

Christopher Clarey, “At 35, Haas still dreams of tennis like a 7-year-old” New York Times, May 23, 2013.

See Sam Siril’s “Roger Federer not to focus on turning 30” Live Tennis Guide, August 30, 2011, and Bill Dwyre’s “Roger Federer at 30 must heed the clock” Los Angeles Times, August 27, 2011.

Associated Press, “Players 30 and older enjoy tennis success” USA Today, April 1, 2013.

Nick Bollettieri, “Tommy Haas and his time machine” UBITennis, August 18, 2012.

Greg Garber, “Thirty no longer a death sentence” ESPN, August 28, 2012.

See Diane Pucin’s article “What’s happened to serve and volley in tennis?” Los Angeles Times, August 24, 2013 or Kevin Darling’s “Death of a tennis art: Is this the end for serve and volley?” CNN, June 26, 2012.

See Greg Garber’s “Why Nadal should salute the string” ESPN, August 24, 2011.

The United States Racquet Stringers Association, http://www.racquettech.com/, Accessed on September 4, 2013.

Citation Information: Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, Volume 10, Issue 2, Pages 99–107, ISSN (Online) 1559-0410, ISSN (Print) 2194-6388, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1515/jqas-2013-0091.

Export Citation

©2014 by Walter de Gruyter Berlin/Boston.Get Permission

Citing Articles

Here you can find all Crossref-listed publications in which this article is cited. If you would like to receive automatic email messages as soon as this article is cited in other publications, simply activate the “Citation Alert” on the top of this page.

Seife Dendir
Journal of Sports Analytics, 2016, Volume 2, Number 2, Page 89

Comments (0)

Please log in or register to comment.
Log in