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Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports

An official journal of the American Statistical Association

Editor-in-Chief: Steve Rigdon, PhD


CiteScore 2018: 1.67

SCImago Journal Rank (SJR) 2018: 0.587
Source Normalized Impact per Paper (SNIP) 2018: 1.970

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1559-0410
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Volume 12, Issue 3

Issues

Volume 1 (2005)

Analysis of substitution times in soccer

Rajitha M. Silva
  • Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, Simon Fraser University, 8888 University Drive, Burnaby BC, Canada V5A1S6
  • Other articles by this author:
  • De Gruyter OnlineGoogle Scholar
/ Tim B. Swartz
  • Corresponding author
  • Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, Simon Fraser University, 8888 University Drive, Burnaby BC, Canada V5A1S6
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  • Other articles by this author:
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Published Online: 2016-08-26 | DOI: https://doi.org/10.1515/jqas-2015-0114

Abstract

This paper considers the problem of determining optimal substitution times in soccer. We review the substitution rule proposed by Myers (Myers, B. R. 2012. “A Proposed Decision Rule for the Timing of Soccer Substitutions.” Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports 8: Article 9.) and provide a discussion of the results. An alternative analysis is then presented that is based on Bayesian logistic regression. We find that with evenly matched teams, there is a goal scoring advantage to the trailing team during the second half of a match. In addition, we provide a different perspective with respect to the substitution guidelines advocated by Myers (Myers, B. R. 2012. “A Proposed Decision Rule for the Timing of Soccer Substitutions.” Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports 8: Article 9.). Specifically, we observe that there is no discernible time during the second half when there is a benefit due to substitution.

Keywords: Bayesian logistic regression; statistics in sport; subjective priors; temporal smoothing; WinBUGS software

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About the article

Published Online: 2016-08-26

Published in Print: 2016-09-01


Citation Information: Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, Volume 12, Issue 3, Pages 113–122, ISSN (Online) 1559-0410, ISSN (Print) 2194-6388, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1515/jqas-2015-0114.

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