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Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports

An official journal of the American Statistical Association

Editor-in-Chief: Steve Rigdon, PhD

4 Issues per year

CiteScore 2017: 0.67

SCImago Journal Rank (SJR) 2017: 0.290
Source Normalized Impact per Paper (SNIP) 2017: 0.853

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Volume 13, Issue 1


Volume 1 (2005)

Bayesian survival analysis of batsmen in Test cricket

Oliver George Stevenson / Brendon J. Brewer
Published Online: 2017-03-17 | DOI: https://doi.org/10.1515/jqas-2016-0090


Cricketing knowledge tells us batting is more difficult early in a player’s innings but becomes easier as a player familiarizes themselves with the conditions. In this paper, we develop a Bayesian survival analysis method to predict the Test Match batting abilities for international cricketers. The model is applied in two stages, firstly to individual players, allowing us to quantify players’ initial and equilibrium batting abilities, and the rate of transition between the two. This is followed by implementing the model using a hierarchical structure, providing us with more general inference concerning a selected group of opening batsmen from New Zealand. The results indicate most players begin their innings playing with between only a quarter and half of their potential batting ability. Using the hierarchical structure we are able to make predictions for the batting abilities of the next opening batsman to debut for New Zealand. Additionally, we compare and identify players who excel in the role of opening the batting, which has practical implications in terms of batting order and team selection policy.

Keywords: Bayesian survival analysis; cricket; hierarchical modelling


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About the article

Published Online: 2017-03-17

Published in Print: 2017-03-01

Citation Information: Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, Volume 13, Issue 1, Pages 25–36, ISSN (Online) 1559-0410, ISSN (Print) 2194-6388, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1515/jqas-2016-0090.

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