In this section we investigate the quasi-maximum likelihood estimator (QMLE) for the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (GARCH) model based on the Laplace (1,1) residuals to propose some theoretical results.
The GARCH (r,s) model has the following form:
(1)
Here, ηt is a sequence of independent and identical distributed (i.i.d.) random variables, α0 > 0, αi ≥ 0, i = 1, 2, ⋯, r; βj ≥ 0, j = 1, 2, ⋯, s. According to Bougerol and Picard(1992)[17], the sufficient and necessary condition for the strictly stationary solution of GARCH (r, s) model is
(2)
Assume that θ = (α0, α1, ⋯, αr, β1, β2, ⋯, βs)′ is the parameter vector of formula (1) and its true parameter vector is θ0. Let l = r + s + 1, then θ is l dimension vector. The parameter vector space is Θ, Θ ⊂ R0 = [0, ∞). By assumption that a Laplace distribution has the density f(x) = 0.5e−|x−1| for ηt and conditionally on initial values ε0, ⋯, ε1−r, then the Laplace quasi-likelihood is
with regard to t ≥ 1, where
We select the initial values
(3)
or
(4)
As a result, θ̂n is named the QMLE for θ and has the following form
(5)
where
(6)
Denote If r = 0, α(z) = 0; if s = 0, β(z) = 1. Before providing main results, we introduce firstly the following assumptions.
Assumption 1
θ0 ∈ Θ, Θ is compact and θ0 is an inner dot.
Assumption 3
Assumption 4
If s > 0, there are no common roots for α(z) and β(z), α(1) ≠ 0, αr + βs ≠ 0.
Assumption 5
Assumption 1 ensures the parameter vector space is compact and is required to prove asymptotic normality. Assumption 2 and 4 are the identifiability conditions for model (1). Assumption 3 is a necessary condition to prove the strong consistency and Assumption 5 is asymptotic normality.
Actually, the initial values of εt and are unknown when t ≤ 0. Let ε̃t(θ) and (θ) be εt(θ) and (θ), respectively, when εt and (θ) are constants when t ≤ 0. The formula (6) can be modified as
(7)
(8)
In what follows we establish the main results of this paper.
Theorem 2.1
Under the initial values (3) or (4), if the Assumptions 1-5 hold, then there exists a sequence of minimizers θ̂n of In(θ) such that
Theorem 2.2
If the Assumptions 1-5 hold, then
where
(9)
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