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Mathematical Modelling in Civil Engineering

The Journal of Technical University of Civil Engineering of Bucharest

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Preliminary Wrf-Arw Model Analysis of Global Solar Irradiation Forecasting

Dragos Isvoranu
  • Corresponding author
  • Associate Professor, PhD, University Politehnica of Bucharest, Faculty of Aerospace Engineering, Bucharest
  • Email:
/ Viorel Badescu
  • Professor, PhD, University Politehnica of Bucharest, Candida Oancea Institute, Bucharest
  • Email:
Published Online: 2014-04-12 | DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/mmce-2014-0001


The purpose of this research is focused on the evaluation of short term global solar irradiation forecasting performance in order to assess the outcome of photovoltaic power stations. The paper presents a comparative analysis between the predicted irradiation obtained by numerical simulation and measurements. The simulation data is obtained from WRF-ARW model (Weather Research Forecasting-Advanced Research WRF), whose initial and boundary conditions are provided by the global forecasting model GFS. Taking into account the complexity of options for the physics models provided with WRF, we embarked upon a parametric analysis of the simulated solar irradiance. This complex task provides a better insight among the coupling of various physics options and enables us to find the best fit with the measured data for a specified site and time period. The present preliminary analysis shows that the accuracy of the computed global solar irradiance can be improved by choosing the appropriate built-in physics models. A combination of physics models providing the best results has been identified.

Keywords : global irradiance forecast; NWP simulation; PV stations; model analysis


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About the article

Published Online: 2014-04-12

Published in Print: 2014-03-01

Citation Information: Mathematical Modelling in Civil Engineering, ISSN (Online) 2066-6934, DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/mmce-2014-0001. Export Citation

© by Dragos Isvoranu. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial License, which permits unrestricted non-commercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. (CC BY-NC-ND 3.0)

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