Jump to ContentJump to Main Navigation
Show Summary Details
In This Section

Mathematical Modelling in Civil Engineering

The Journal of Technical University of Civil Engineering of Bucharest

4 Issues per year

Open Access
Online
ISSN
2066-6934
See all formats and pricing
In This Section

Preliminary Wrf-Arw Model Analysis of Global Solar Irradiation Forecasting

Dragos Isvoranu
  • Corresponding author
  • Associate Professor, PhD, University Politehnica of Bucharest, Faculty of Aerospace Engineering, Bucharest
  • Email:
/ Viorel Badescu
  • Professor, PhD, University Politehnica of Bucharest, Candida Oancea Institute, Bucharest
  • Email:
Published Online: 2014-04-12 | DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/mmce-2014-0001

Abstract

The purpose of this research is focused on the evaluation of short term global solar irradiation forecasting performance in order to assess the outcome of photovoltaic power stations. The paper presents a comparative analysis between the predicted irradiation obtained by numerical simulation and measurements. The simulation data is obtained from WRF-ARW model (Weather Research Forecasting-Advanced Research WRF), whose initial and boundary conditions are provided by the global forecasting model GFS. Taking into account the complexity of options for the physics models provided with WRF, we embarked upon a parametric analysis of the simulated solar irradiance. This complex task provides a better insight among the coupling of various physics options and enables us to find the best fit with the measured data for a specified site and time period. The present preliminary analysis shows that the accuracy of the computed global solar irradiance can be improved by choosing the appropriate built-in physics models. A combination of physics models providing the best results has been identified.

Keywords : global irradiance forecast; NWP simulation; PV stations; model analysis

References

  • [1] Heinemann D., Lorenz E., Girodo M. (2006). Forecasting of solar radiation in: Dunlop, E.D., Wald, L., Suri, M. (Eds.), Solar Energy Resource Management for Electricity Generation from Local Level to GlobalScale. Nova Science Publishers, Hauppauge.

  • [2] Mellit A., Pavan A.M. (2010). Sol. Energy 84 (5), (pp. 807-821)

  • [3] IEA, (2007). Energy Technologies at the Cutting Edge, International Energy Agency, OECD Publication Service, OECD, Paris.

  • [4] Grell G., Dudhia J., Stauffer D. (1998). A Description of the Fifth-Generation Penn State/NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5), NCAR Tech. Note, NCAR/TN-398+STR, USA,.

  • [5] Zamora R.J., Dutton E.G., Trainer M., McKeen S.A., Wilczak J.M., Hou Y.T. (2005). Mon. Weather Rev. 133, (pp. 783-792).

  • [6] Zamora R.J., Solomon S., Dutton E.G., Bao J.W., Trainer M., Portmann R.W., White A.B., Nelson D.W., McNider R.T. (2003). J. Geophys.Res. 108 (D2), 4050.

  • [7] Lorenz E., RemundJ., Muller S.C., Traunmuller W., Steinmaurer G., Pozo D., Ruiz-Arias J.A., Fanego V.L., Ramirez L., Romeo M.G., Kurz C., Pomares L.M., Guerrero C.G. (2009). Benchmarking of different approaches to forecast solar irradiance. In: 24th European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference, Hamburg, Germany.

  • [8] Lorenz E., Hurka J., Heinemann D., Beyer H.G. (2009). IEEE J. Selected Topics Appl. Earth Observations Remote Sens. 2 (1).

  • [9] Remund R., Perez Y., Lorenz E. (2008). Comparison of solar radiation forecasts for the USA. In: Proceedings of the 23rd European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference, Valencia, Spain, (pp. 1.9-4.9).

  • [10] Perez Y., Ramos-Real F.J. (2009). Renew. Sust. Energy Rev., 13, (pp. 1058-1066).

  • [11] Ruiz-Arias J.A., Pozo-Vazquez D., Sanchez-Sanchez N., Montavez J.P., Hayas-Barru A., Tovar-Pescador J., Il Nuovo Cimento, 31 (5-6), (pp. 825-842).

  • [12] D. Santos-Muñoz, J. Wolff, C. Santos, García-Moya J.A., Nance L. (2009). Implementation and validation of WRF model as ensemble member of a probabilistic prediction system over Europe. In: 10th Annual WRF Users’ Workshop, Boulder, CO.

  • [13]ARW version3 Modeling System User's Guide. (2012). National Center for Atmospheric Research, http://www.mmm.ucar.edu/wrf/users/docs/user_guide_V3/contents.html.

  • [14]Skamarock W.C., Klemp J.B., Dudhia J., Gill D.O., Barker D.M., Duda M.G., Huang X.Y., Wang W., Powers, J.G. (2008). A description of the advanced research WRF Version 3. NCAR/TN-475+STR.

  • [15] Dudhia J. (1989). Numerical study of convection observed during the winter monsoon experiment using a mesoscale two-dimensional model, J. Atmos. Sci., 46, (pp. 3077-3107). [Crossref]

  • [16]Chou M.D., Suarez M.J. (1994). An efficient thermal infrared radiation parameterization for use in generalcirculation models. NASA Tech. Memo. 104606, 3, pp. 85.

  • [17]Collins, W.D. et al. (2004) Description of the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model (CAM 3.0), NCAR Technical Note, NCAR/TN-464+STR, pp. 226.

  • [18]Mlawer, E. J., Taubman S. J., Brown P. D., Iacono M. J., Clough S. A. (1997) Radiative transfer for inhomogeneous atmosphere: RRTM, a validated correlated-k model for the longwave. J. Geophys. Res., 102 (D14), (pp. 16663-16682). [Crossref]

  • [19] Chou M.D., Suarez M. J. (1999) A solar radiation parametrization for atmospheric studies, NASA/TM-1999-104606, Vol. 15.

  • [20] Lacis A. A. and Hansen J. E. (1974). A parameterization for the absorption of solar radiation in the earth’s atmosphere, J. Atmos. Sci., 31, (pp. 118-133). [Crossref]

  • [21]Dudhia J. Overview of WRF Physics, http://www.mmm.ucar.edu/wrf/users/tutorial/201201/Physics_Dudhia.ppt.pdf

  • [22] Stephens G. L. (1978). Radiation profiles in extended water clouds. Part II: Parameterization schemes, J. Atmos. Sci., 35, (pp. 2123-2132). [Crossref]

  • [23]Badescu V., Dumitrescu A. (2013). The CMSAF Hourly Solar Irradiance Database (Product CM54). Accuracy And Bias Corrections With Illustrations For Romania (South-Eastern Europe), Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, 93, (pp. 100-109). [Web of Science]

About the article

Published Online: 2014-04-12

Published in Print: 2014-03-01



Citation Information: Mathematical Modelling in Civil Engineering, ISSN (Online) 2066-6934, DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/mmce-2014-0001. Export Citation

© by Dragos Isvoranu. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial License, which permits unrestricted non-commercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. (CC BY-NC-ND 3.0)

Citing Articles

Here you can find all Crossref-listed publications in which this article is cited. If you would like to receive automatic email messages as soon as this article is cited in other publications, simply activate the “Citation Alert” on the top of this page.

[1]
M. A. Shamim, M. Bray, R. Remesan, and D. Han
Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 2014

Comments (0)

Please log in or register to comment.
Log in