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Volume 44, Issue 3


A method for assessing the coastline recession due to the sea level rise by assuming stationary wind-wave climate

Junjie Deng
  • Corresponding author
  • Faculty of Geosciences, University of Szczecin, ul. A. Mickiewicza 18, 70-383 Szczecin, Poland
  • School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Wollongong, NSW 2522, Wollongong, Australia
  • Email
  • Other articles by this author:
  • De Gruyter OnlineGoogle Scholar
/ Jan Harff
  • Faculty of Geosciences, University of Szczecin, ul. A. Mickiewicza 18, 70-383 Szczecin, Poland
  • Other articles by this author:
  • De Gruyter OnlineGoogle Scholar
/ Semjon Schimanke / H. E. Markus Meier
  • Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, 60176, Norrköping, Sweden
  • Department of Meteorology, Stockholm University, 10691, Stockholm, Sweden
  • Other articles by this author:
  • De Gruyter OnlineGoogle Scholar
Published Online: 2015-09-30 | DOI: https://doi.org/10.1515/ohs-2015-0035


The method introduced in this study for future projection of coastline changes hits the vital need of communicating the potential climate change impact on the coast in the 21th century. A quantitative method called the Dynamic Equilibrium Shore Model (DESM) has been developed to hindcast historical sediment mass budgets and to reconstruct a paleo Digital Elevation Model (DEM). The forward mode of the DESM model relies on paleo-scenarios reconstructed by the DESM model assuming stationary wind-wave climate. A linear relationship between the sea level, coastline changes and sediment budget is formulated and proven by the least square regression method. In addition to its forward prediction of coastline changes, this linear relationship can also estimate the sediment budget by using the information on the coastline and relative sea level changes. Wind climate change is examined based on regional climate model data. Our projections for the end of the 21st century suggest that the wind and wave climates in the southern Baltic Sea may not change compared to present conditions and that the investigated coastline along the Pomeranian Bay may retreat from 10 to 100 m depending on the location and on the sea level rise which was assumed to be in the range of 0.12 to 0.24 m.

Keywords: modelling; coastline changes; dynamic equilibrium; sediment budget estimation; climate change


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About the article

Received: 2015-02-04

Accepted: 2015-05-11

Published Online: 2015-09-30

Published in Print: 2015-09-01

Citation Information: Oceanological and Hydrobiological Studies, Volume 44, Issue 3, Pages 362–380, ISSN (Online) 1897-3191, ISSN (Print) 1730-413X, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1515/ohs-2015-0035.

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