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About the article
Published Online: 2013-08-07
Published in Print: 2013-08-01
According to Bercovitch et al. (1991: 8), mediation is “a process of conflict management where disputants seek the assistance of, or accept an offer of help from an individual, group, state or organization to settle their conflict or resolve their differences without resorting to physical force or invoking the authority of the law”.
On this, also see Fortna (2008).
On this issue and references to the “Wagner hypothesis”, see Licklider (1995). Also see Hoekstra (2008).
For references to an extensive literature on this subject, e.g., see Caruso (2010), footnote 1.
According to the COW data set, to constitute a civil war, a conflict had to a) occur within a generally recognized state; b) produce at least one thousand battle deaths per year; c) involve the national government as a participant; and d) experience effective resistance from both the rebels and the government.
For an overview of the conflicts included into our empirical analysis, see table 5 in the appendix to this paper.
Data for this variable are taken from the COW dataset.
In the case of Burundi, where estimates for the number of battle deaths vary between 20,000 and 300,000, the lower estimate was chosen (as taken from the COW Dataset).
Regional affiliations are taken from http://unstats.un.org/unsd/methods/m49/m49regin.htm.
The variable “strength of third party security guarantees” is dropped since in the analysis, it predicted success perfectly.
The regions distinguished are: Eastern Africa, Middle Africa, Northern Africa, Western Africa, Caribbean, Central America, South America, Central Asia, Eastern Asia, Southern Asia, South-Eastern Asia, Western Asia, Eastern Europe, and Southern Europe.
The categories are on the basis of Walter (2002).
An analysis using regional affiliation as a predictor, in addition to the other independent variables, does not show significant differences in a comparison of effects across regions.
The effect estimated in model 1, which takes the other explanatory variables into account, is even higher than that (i.e., close to a ratio of 17:1).
Statistical significance is p = 0.004 for the full model specification, and even less than 0.001 for the concise model.