Jump to ContentJump to Main Navigation
Show Summary Details
More options …

Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy

Editor-in-Chief: Caruso, Raul

Ed. by Bove, Vincenzo / Kibris, Arzu / Sekeris, Petros

CiteScore 2017: 0.54

SCImago Journal Rank (SJR) 2017: 0.304
Source Normalized Impact per Paper (SNIP) 2017: 0.540

See all formats and pricing
More options …
Volume 20, Issue 4


Volume 17 (2011)

Volume 4 (1996)

Volume 3 (1995)

Volume 2 (1994)

Volume 1 (1993)

Conflict Spillovers and Growth in Africa

J. Paul Dunne / Nan Tian
Published Online: 2014-10-07 | DOI: https://doi.org/10.1515/peps-2014-0038


A number of studies have attempted to evaluate the costs of conflict, but few have evaluated the impact of conflict on country growth. An even more limited number of studies have attempted to evaluate the spillover effects of conflict, with those that have finding clear negative effects on primary neighbors and then positive secondary neighbor effects. There are, however, a number of issues with these studies and this paper updates and develops their analysis using a dynamic panel approach. It confirms the negative sign and magnitude of the previous findings for the host country and primary neighbors, but finds no evidence of any positive or negative effects of conflict on secondary neighbors.

Keywords: Africa; conflict; economic growth; spatial econometrics

JEL codes: C21; F51; H56; O11


  • Barro, R.J., Lee, J., (2001), International Data on Education Attainment: Updates and Implications, Oxford Economic Papers, vol. 53, no. 3, pp. 541–563.Google Scholar

  • Barro, R.J., Lee, J., (2013), A New Data Set of Educational Attainment in The World, 1950–2010, Journal of Development Economics, vol. 104, pp. 184–198.Web of ScienceGoogle Scholar

  • Collier, P., (1999), On The Economic Consequences of Civil War, Oxford Economic Papers, vol. 51, no. 1, pp. 168–183.Google Scholar

  • De Groot, O.J., (2010), The Spillover Effects of Conflict on Economic Growth in Neighbouring Countries in Africa, Defence and Peace Economics, vol. 21, no. 2, pp. 149–164.Web of ScienceGoogle Scholar

  • Dunne, J.P., (2013), Armed conflicts, Chapter 1 in Bjorn Lomborg (ed.), Global Problems, Smart Solutions: Costs and Benefits, Cambridge University Press for Copenhagen Consensus. http://www.cambridge.org/us/academic/subjects/economics/public-economics-and-public-policy/global-problems-smart-solutions-costs-and-benefits.

  • Dunne, J.P., Tian, N., (2013), Military Spending, Economic Growth and Conflict in Africa, Mimeo.Google Scholar

  • Dunne, J.P., Tian, N., (2014), Conflict, Economic Growth and Spatial Spillover Effects in Africa, Mimeo.Google Scholar

  • Dunne, Paul J., Nikolaidou, E., Smith, R., (2002), Military Spending, Investment and Economic Growth in Small Industrialising Economies, South African Journal of Economics, vol. 70, no. 5, pp. 789–790.Google Scholar

  • Feenstra, R.C., Inklaar, R., Timmer, M. (2013), The Next Generation of the Penn World Table, Available for download at www.ggdc.net/pwt.

  • Gleditsch, K.S., Ward, M.D., (2001), Measuring Space: A Minimum-Distance Database and Applications to International Studies, Journal of Peace Research, vol. 38, no. 6, pp. 739–758.Google Scholar

  • Gyimah-Brempong, K., Corley, M.E., (2005), Civil Wars and Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa, Journal of African Economies, vol. 14, no. 2, pp. 270–311.Google Scholar

  • Mankiw, Gregory N., Romer, D., Weil, David N., (1992), A Contribution to The Empirics of Economic Growth, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol. 107, no. 2, pp. 407–437.Google Scholar

  • Murdoch, J.C., Sandler, T., (2002a), Economic Growth, Civil Wars and Spatial Spillovers, Journal of Conflict Resolution, vol. 46, no. 1, pp. 91–110.Google Scholar

  • Murdoch, J.C., Sandler, T., (2002b), Civil Wars and Economic Growth: A Regional Comparison, Defence and Peace Economics, vol. 13, no. 6, pp. 451–464.Google Scholar

  • Murdoch, J.C., Sandler, T., (2004), Civil Wars and Economic Growth: Spatial Dispersion, American Journal of Political Science, vol. 48, no. 1, pp. 138–151.Google Scholar

  • Organski, A.F.K., Kugler, J., (1980), The War Ledger, University of Chicago Press, Chicago.Google Scholar

  • Sambanis, N., (2002), A Review of Recent Advances and Future Directions in the Quantitative Literature on Civil War, Defence and Peace Economics, vol. 13, no. 3, pp. 215–243.Google Scholar

  • Themner, L., Wallensteen, P., (2011), Armed Conflict, 1946–2010, Journal of Peace Research, vol. 48, no. 4, pp. 525–536.Google Scholar

About the article

Corresponding author: Nan Tian, School of Economics, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, Western Cape 7701, South Africa, E-mail:

Published Online: 2014-10-07

Published in Print: 2014-12-01

Citation Information: Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy, Volume 20, Issue 4, Pages 539–549, ISSN (Online) 1554-8597, ISSN (Print) 1079-2457, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1515/peps-2014-0038.

Export Citation

© 2014 by De Gruyter.Get Permission

Citing Articles

Here you can find all Crossref-listed publications in which this article is cited. If you would like to receive automatic email messages as soon as this article is cited in other publications, simply activate the “Citation Alert” on the top of this page.

Raul Caruso, Prabin Khadka, Ilaria Petrarca, and Roberto Ricciuti
Defence and Peace Economics, 2017, Volume 28, Number 2, Page 250
Fabrizio Carmignani and Parvinder Kler
Economic Analysis and Policy, 2016, Volume 49, Page 7
Godwin Okafor
Defence and Peace Economics, 2017, Volume 28, Number 2, Page 208

Comments (0)

Please log in or register to comment.
Log in