Jump to ContentJump to Main Navigation
Show Summary Details
More options …

Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy

Editor-in-Chief: Caruso, Raul

Ed. by Bove, Vincenzo / Kibris, Arzu / Sekeris, Petros


CiteScore 2018: 0.44

SCImago Journal Rank (SJR) 2018: 0.281
Source Normalized Impact per Paper (SNIP) 2018: 0.320

Online
ISSN
1554-8597
See all formats and pricing
More options …
Volume 24, Issue 1

Issues

Volume 17 (2011)

Volume 4 (1996)

Volume 3 (1995)

Volume 2 (1994)

Volume 1 (1993)

The Effect of Farmer-Pastoralist Violence on State-Level Internal Revenue Generation in Nigeria: A Modified Synthetic Control Analysis Approach

Topher McDougalORCID iD: http://orcid.org/0000-0002-1079-0670
  • Corresponding author
  • University of San Diego, Kroc School of Peace Studies, 5998 Alcala Park KIPJ Suite 113, San Diego, CA 92110, USA
  • Centre on Conflict, Development and Peacebuilding, Graduate Institute for International and Development Studies, Geneva, Switzerland
  • orcid.org/0000-0002-1079-0670
  • Email
  • Other articles by this author:
  • De Gruyter OnlineGoogle Scholar
/ Talia HagertyORCID iD: http://orcid.org/0000-0003-0452-527X / Lisa Inks / Stone Conroy
Published Online: 2017-09-15 | DOI: https://doi.org/10.1515/peps-2017-0010

Abstract

Nigeria’s ethnically and religiously diverse Middle Belt has experienced recurrent eruptions of violence over the past several decades. Disputes between pastoralists and farmers arise from disagreements over access to farmland, grazing areas, stock routes, and water points for both animals and households. Although relatively low in intensity, this form of violence is widespread, persistent, and arguably increasing in its incidence. This study seeks to answer the question: How has farmer-pastoralist conflict affected state internally-generated revenues (IGR)? The literature on the effect of violence on sub-national fiscal capacity is slim to none. We use a synthetic control approach to model how IGR for four conflict-affected states – Benue, Kaduna, Nasarawa, and Plateau – would have developed in the absence of violence. To account for the endogeneity criticism commonly leveled at such synthetic control analyses, we then use a fixed-effects IV model to estimate IGR losses predicted by the synthetic control analysis as a function of farmer-pastoralist fatalities. Our conservative estimates for percentage reduction to annual state IGR growth for the four states are 0%, 1.2%, 2.6%, and 12.1% respectively, implying that IGR is likely much more sensitive to conflict than GDP. In total, the four study states of Benue, Kaduna, Nasarawa, and Plateau are estimated to have lost between US$719,000 and US$2.3 million in 2010 US dollars, or 22–47% of their potential IGR collection during the period of intense.

Keywords: violence; synthetic control; Nigeria; fiscal impact

References

  • Abadie, A. & Gardeazabal, J. (2003). The economic costs of conflict: a case study of the Basque country. American Economic Review, 93(1), 221–240.Google Scholar

  • Abadie, A., Diamond, A. & Hainmueller, J. (2010). Synthetic control methods for comparative case studies: Estimating the effect of California’s Tobacco Control Program. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 105(490), 493–505.Web of ScienceCrossrefGoogle Scholar

  • Aghedo, I. & Osumah, O. (2012). The boko haram uprising: How should Nigeria respond? Third World Quarterly, 33(5), 853–869.Web of ScienceCrossrefGoogle Scholar

  • Benjaminsen, T. A., Alinon, K., Buhaug, H. & Buseth, J. T. (2012). Does climate change drive land-use conflicts in the Sahel? Journal of Peace Research, 49(1), 97–111.CrossrefWeb of ScienceGoogle Scholar

  • Blench, R. (2010). Conflict between pastoralists and cultivators in Nigeria. Review Paper prepared for the Department for International Development (DFID). Available at: http://www.rogerblench.info/Development/Nigeria/Pastoralism/Fadama%20II%20paper.pdf.

  • Brauer, J. & Dunne, J. P. (2012). Peace economics: A macroeconomic primer for violence-afflicted states academy guides. Washington, DC: United States Institute of Peace.Google Scholar

  • Brück, T. & Schindler, K. (2009). The impact of violent conflicts on households: What do we know and what should we know about war widows? Oxford Development Studies, 37(3), 289–309.CrossrefGoogle Scholar

  • Brück, T., de Groot, O. J. & Bozzoli, C. (2012). How many bucks in a bang: On the estimation of the economic costs of conflict. Garfinkel, M. R. & S Skaperdas (Eds.), The oxford handbook of the economics of peace and conflict. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar

  • Chothia, F. (2013). Boko Haram timeline: From preachers to slave raiders. BBC News, 15 May. Available at: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-22538888.

  • Chowdhury, A. R. & Murshed, S. M. (2013). A note on war and fiscal capacity in developing Countries. Peace Economics Peace Science and Public Policy, 19(3), 431–435.Google Scholar

  • Chowdhury, A. R. & Murshed, S. M. (2014). Conflict and fiscal capacity. Defence and Peace Economics, 27(5), 583–608.Web of ScienceGoogle Scholar

  • Collier, P. (1999). On the economic consequences of civil war. Oxford Economic Papers, 51, 168–183.CrossrefGoogle Scholar

  • Collier, P., Elliott, V. L., Hegre, H., Hoeffler, A., Reynal-Querol, M. & Sambanis, N. (2003). Breaking the conflict trap: Civil war and development. Washington, DC: World Bank.Google Scholar

  • Doidge, J. C., Segal, L. & Gospodarevskaya, E. (2012). Attributable risk analysis reveals potential healthcare savings from increased consumption of dairy products. The Journal of Nutrition: Methodology and Mathematical Modeling, 142, 1772–80.CrossrefGoogle Scholar

  • Greenland, S. & Drescher, K. (1993). Maximum likelihood estimation of the attributable fraction from logistic models. Biometrics, 49, 865–872.CrossrefGoogle Scholar

  • Hendrix, C. S. & Glaser, S. M. (2007). Trends and triggers: Climate, climate change and civil conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa. Political Geography, 26(6), 695–715.CrossrefGoogle Scholar

  • Higazi, A. (2013). Rural Insecurity on the Jos Plateau, Nigeria: livelihoods, land, and religious reform among the Berom, Fulani, and Hausa. Oxford: Nigeria Research Network.Google Scholar

  • Human Rights Watch. (2013). ‘Leave everything to god’ accountability and inter-communal violence in plateau and Kaduna States. New York: Human Rights Watch. Available at: http://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/nigeria1213_ForUpload.pdf.

  • Hunt, J. T. (2006). The politics of bones: Dr. Owens Wiwa and the struggle for Nigeria’s oil. Toronto: McClelland & Stewart.Google Scholar

  • Justino, P., Brück, T. & Verwimp, P. (2013). A micro-level perspective on the dynamics of conflict, violence, and development (pp. 336). New York: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar

  • Last, J. M. (2001). A dictionary of epidemiology. New York: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar

  • Lidow, N. (2016). Violent order: Rebel organization and Liberia’s civil war. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar

  • McDougal, T. L. (2017). The political economy of rural-urban conflict: Predation, production, and peripheries. New York: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar

  • McDougal, T. L., Hagerty, T., Inks, L., Dowd, C. & Conroy, S. (2015a). Macroeconomic benefits of farmer-pastoralist peace in Nigeria’s Middle Belt: An input-output analysis approach. Economics of Peace & Security Journal, 10(1), 54–65.Web of ScienceGoogle Scholar

  • McDougal, T. L., Hagerty, T., Inks, L., Ugo-Ike, C.-L., Dowd, C., Conroy, S. & Ogabiela, D. (2015b). The effect of farmer-pastoralist violence on income: New survey evidence from Nigeria’s middle belt states. Economics of Peace & Security Journal, 10(1), 66–77.Web of ScienceGoogle Scholar

  • Mercy Corps. (2015). The economic costs of conflict and benefits of peace: Effects of farmer-pastoralist conflict in Nigeria’s middle belt on state, sector, and national economies. Policy briefs. Portland, OR: Mercy Corps. Available at: https://www.mercycorps.org/sites/default/files/Mercy%20Corps%20Nigeria%20State%20Costs%20of%20Conflict%20Policy%20Brief%20July%202015.pdf.

  • Mohammed, A. S. (Undated). The impact of conflict on the economy: The case of plateau state of Nigeria. London: Overseas Development Institute.Google Scholar

  • Nenova, T. (2004). Private sector response to the absence of government institutions in Somalia. Washington, DC: World Bank.Google Scholar

  • Nenova, T. & Harford, T. (2004). Anarchy and invention: How does somalia’s private sector cope without government?. Washington, DC: World Bank.Google Scholar

  • Nossiter, A. (2010). Toll from religious and ethnic violence in Nigeria rises to 500. New York Times, (March 8.). Available at: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/09/world/africa/09nigeria.html.Google Scholar

  • Obi, C. I. (2010). Oil extraction, dispossession, resistance, and conflict in Nigeria’s oil-rich Niger Delta. Canadian Journal of Development Studies, 30(1–2), 219–236.Google Scholar

  • Obiliki, N. (2014). An examination of subnational growth in Nigeria: 1999–2012. ERSA working paper series. Claremont, South Africa: Economic Research Southern Africa (ERSA).Google Scholar

  • Odoh, S.I. & Chigozie, C. F. (2012). Climate change and conflict in Nigeria: A theoretical and empirical examination of the worsening incidence of conflict between Fulani Herdsmen and farmers in northern Nigeria. Arabian Journal of Business and Management Review, 2(1), 110–124.Google Scholar

  • Ogbuabor, J. E. & Malaolu, V. A. (2013). Size and causes of the informal sector of the Nigerian economy: Evidence from error correction mimic model. Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development, 4(1), 85–103.Google Scholar

  • Onuoha, F. C. (2010). The Islamist challenge: Nigeria’s Boko Haram crisis explained. African Security Review, 19(2), 54–67.CrossrefGoogle Scholar

  • Reno, W. (1997). African weak states and commercial alliances. African Affairs, 96, 165–185.CrossrefGoogle Scholar

  • Sayne, A. (2011). Climate change adaptation and conflict in Nigeria. Special reports. Washington, DC: US Institute of Peace.Google Scholar

  • Serneels, P. & Verpoorten, M. (2015). The impact of armed conflict on economic performance: Evidence from Rwanda. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 59(4), 555–592.Web of ScienceCrossrefGoogle Scholar

  • Singh, P. (2013). Impact of terrorism on investment decisions of farmers: Evidence from the Punjab insurgency. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 57(1). DOI:.CrossrefWeb of ScienceGoogle Scholar

  • Skaperdas, S., Soares, R., Willman, A. & Miller, S. C. (2009). The costs of violence. Washington, DC: World Bank.Google Scholar

  • Snyder, R. & Bhavnani, R. (2005). Diamonds, blood, and taxes: A revenue-centered framework for explaining political order. The Journal of Conflict Resolution, 49(4), 563–597.CrossrefGoogle Scholar

  • Sulaiman, A., Jàafar-Furo, M. R., Nasiru, M., Haruna, U. & Ochi, J. E. (2011). Farmers socio-economic factors influencing resource use conflicts in a typical fadama area in Nigeria: A focus on bauchi state. Trends in Agricultural Economics, 4, 58–64.CrossrefGoogle Scholar

  • Van Evera, S. (1997). Guide to methods for students of political science. Ithaca: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar

  • Verpoorten, Marijke (2009). Household coping in war- and peacetime: Cattle sales in Rwanda, 1991–2001. Journal of Development Economics, 88(1), 67–87.Web of ScienceCrossrefGoogle Scholar

  • Verwimp, P. & Bundervoet, T. Universite Libre de Bruxelles. (2008). Consumption growth, household splits and civil war. Working Papers ECARES. Brussels.Google Scholar

  • Weinstein, J. (2007). Inside rebellion: The politics of insurgent violence. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar

About the article

Published Online: 2017-09-15


Citation Information: Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy, Volume 24, Issue 1, 20170010, ISSN (Online) 1554-8597, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1515/peps-2017-0010.

Export Citation

©2018 Walter de Gruyter GmbH, Berlin/Boston.Get Permission

Comments (0)

Please log in or register to comment.
Log in