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Licensed Unlicensed Requires Authentication Published by De Gruyter June 4, 2014

Ökonometrische Methoden zur Evaluierung kausaler Effekte der Wirtschaftspolitik

  • Franziska Kugler EMAIL logo , Guido Schwerdt and Ludger Wößmann

Zusammenfassung

Die Öffentlichkeit hat ein Interesse zu wissen, ob politische Maßnahmen die mit ihnen verfolgten Ziele wirksam und wirtschaftlich erreichen. In empirischen Studien, die als Grundlage für evidenzbasierte Wirtschaftspolitik dienen können, werden häufig komplexe Methoden verwendet, um tatsächliche kausale Wirkungen von anderweitig verursachten Zusammenhängen zu unterscheiden. Der vorliegende Beitrag gibt einen nicht-technischen Überblick über Intuition und Anwendungsbeispiele des modernen wissenschaftlichen Instrumentariums zur Evaluierung kausaler Effekte. Die betrachteten ökonometrischen Methoden umfassen kontrolliert randomisierte Experimente, die Zufallsvergabe überzeichneter Programme, den Instrumentvariablen-Ansatz, den Regressions-Diskontinuitäten-Ansatz, den Differenz-von-Differenzen-Ansatz sowie Panelmethoden mit fixen Effekten. Diese experimentellen und quasi-experimentellen Designs sollen der Wirtschaftspolitik helfen zu lernen, was funktioniert.

Danksagung

Wir danken Martin Schlotter für die Zusammenarbeit an einem Vorgängerprojekt, Sascha Becker, Oliver Falck und Gabriel Felbermayr für nützliche Hinweise und Karen Horn und Karl-Heinz Paqué für redaktionelle Überarbeitungen.

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Franziska Kugler, M.Sc., Jahrgang 1986, studierte Betriebswirt-schaftslehre und Volkswirtschaftslehre mit dem Schwerpunkt Arbeitsmarktforschung in München und Nürnberg. Seit 2013 ist sie Fachreferentin am ifo Zentrum für Bildungs- und Innovationsökonomik am ifo Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung an der Universität München.

Prof. Dr. Guido Schwerdt, Jahrgang 1977, studierte Volkswirtschaftslehre an der Universität Bonn und promovierte 2007 am Europäischen Hochschulinstitut in Florenz in Volkswirtschaftslehre. Anschließend war er als wissenschaftlicher Mitarbeiter am ifo Institut in München und zwischenzeitlich auch als Research Fellow im Program on Education Policy and Governance an der Harvard Universität beschäftigt. Im Jahr 2013 übernahm er eine Professur für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Angewandte Mikroökonomik, an der Universität Siegen und seit April 2014 ist er Inhaber des Lehrstuhls für Public Economics an der Universität Konstanz. Schwerdt ist zudem Forschungsprofessor am ifo Zentrum für Bildungs- und Innovationsökonomik sowie Mitglied im Bildungsökonomischen Ausschuss im Verein für Socialpolitik. Seine Forschungsschwerpunkte liegen im Schnittbereich der Bildungs- und Arbeitsmarktökonomik sowie der Wirtschaftspolitik.

Prof. Dr. Ludger Wößmann, Jahrgang 1973, ist Inhaber des Lehrstuhls für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Bildungsökonomik an der Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München und leitet das ifo Zentrum für Bildungs- und Innovationsökonomik am Münchner ifo Institut. Er studierte Volkswirtschaftslehre in Marburg, an der University of Kent at Canterbury und im Advanced Studies Program des Kieler Instituts für Weltwirtschaft, an dem er anschließend als Wissenschaftlicher Mitarbeiter arbeitete. Er promovierte 2001 an der Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel und habilitierte sich 2006 an der Technischen Universität München. Seit 2003 arbeitet er am ifo Institut, seit 2004 als Bereichsleiter, seit 2006 hat er gleichzeitig den Lehrstuhl an der LMU inne. 2010 war er National Fellow der Hoover Institution an der Stanford University. Weitere Forschungsaufenthalte führten ihn u.a. an das National Bureau of Economic Research und die Kennedy School of Government an der Harvard University.

Wößmann ist Mitglied der Nationalen Akademie der Wissen-schaften Leopoldina, der Deutschen Akademie der Technikwissenschaften acatech und des Wissenschaftlichen Beirats beim Bundesministerium für Wirtschaft und Energie, Fellow der International Academy of Education sowie Koordinator des European Expert Network on the Economics of Education. Seine Forschung beschäftigt sich mit Themen der Bildungsökonomik, Wachstumsökonomik und Wirtschaftsgeschichte.

Online erschienen: 2014-6-4
Erschienen im Druck: 2014-6-1

© 2014 Walter de Gruyter GmbH, Berlin/Boston

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