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Review of Economic Perspectives

Národohospodárský obzor; The Journal of Masaryk University

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1804-1663
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Volume 15, Issue 2 (Jun 2015)

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Effective Exchange Rates in Central and Eastern European Countries: Cyclicality and Relationship with Macroeconomic Fundamentals

Daniel Stavárek
  • Department of Finance and Accounting, School of Business Administration, Silesian University, Univerzitní nám. 1934/3, 733 40 Karviná, Czechia
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/ Cynthia Miglietti
  • Department of Finance and Accounting, School of Business Administration, Silesian University, Univerzitní nám. 1934/3, 733 40 Karviná, Czechia,
  • Department of Applied Sciences, Firelands College, Bowling Green State University, One University Drive, Huron, OH, 44839, USA
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Published Online: 2015-07-16 | DOI: https://doi.org/10.1515/revecp-2015-0015

Abstract

This paper examines the evolution of effective exchange rates in nine Central and Eastern European countries in terms of development trends, volatility and cyclicality. Consequently, it provides direct empirical evidence on the nature of the relationship between effective exchange rates and selected macroeconomic fundamentals, addressing a key precondition of numerous exchange rate determination models and theories that attempt to explain the role of exchange rates in the economy. The results suggest that flexible exchange rate arrangements are reflected in both nominal and real effective exchange rates having higher volatility and variability. Furthermore, the results provide mixed evidence in terms of intensity, direction and cyclicality, but show a weak correlation between exchange rates and fundamentals. Sufficiently high coefficients are found only for money supply. Consequently, using fundamentals for the determination of exchange rates and using the exchange rate to explain economic development may be of limited use for the countries analyzed.

Keywords: Effective exchange rates; Volatility; Variability; Cycle; High/low analysis; Peak/trough analysis; Cross-correlation

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About the article

Published Online: 2015-07-16

Published in Print: 2015-06-01


Citation Information: Review of Economic Perspectives, ISSN (Online) 1804-1663, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1515/revecp-2015-0015.

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© by Daniel Stavárek. This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 3.0 License. BY-NC-ND 3.0

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