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Russian Journal of Numerical Analysis and Mathematical Modelling

Editor-in-Chief: Dymnikov, Valentin P. / Kuznetsov, Yuri

Managing Editor: Vassilevski, Yuri V.

Editorial Board: Agoshkov, Valeri I. / Amosov, Andrey A. / Kaporin, Igor E. / Kobelkov, Georgy M. / Mikhailov, Gennady A. / Repin, Sergey I. / Shaidurov, Vladimir V. / Shokin, Yuri I. / Tyrtyshnikov, Eugene E.

IMPACT FACTOR 2018: 0.779

CiteScore 2018: 0.92

SCImago Journal Rank (SJR) 2018: 0.512
Source Normalized Impact per Paper (SNIP) 2018: 1.275

Mathematical Citation Quotient (MCQ) 2018: 0.08

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Volume 29, Issue 5


Analysis of a Stochastic Model for the Spread of Tuberculosis with Regard to Reproduction and Seasonal Immigration of Individuals

Nikolay V. Pertsev / Vasiliy N. Leonenko
Published Online: 2014-10-11 | DOI: https://doi.org/10.1515/rnam-2014-0023


A stochastic model for the spread of tuberculosis is proposed taking into account the reproduction and seasonal immigration of individuals. The system of difference equations majorating the system of equations for mathematical expectations of sizes of considered cohorts of individuals is studied. Conditions for the parameters of the model are obtained so that under those conditions the sizes of cohorts of afflicted individuals do not exceed the given mean level. The results of numerical experiments are presented for the study of dynamics of mean sizes of cohorts of individuals subject to parameters of immigration inflow.

Keywords: Stochastic recurrence equations; mathematical modelling; Monte-Carlo methods; epidemiology; tuberculosis.

About the article

Received: 2014-06-05

Accepted: 2014-06-25

Published Online: 2014-10-11

Published in Print: 2014-10-01

Citation Information: Russian Journal of Numerical Analysis and Mathematical Modelling, Volume 29, Issue 5, Pages 285–295, ISSN (Online) 1569-3988, ISSN (Print) 0927-6467, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1515/rnam-2014-0023.

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© 2014 by Walter de Gruyter Berlin/Boston.Get Permission

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