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Statistical Communications in Infectious Diseases

Editor-in-Chief: Evans, Scott

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Using HIV Diagnostic Data to Estimate HIV Incidence: Method and Simulation

Ping Yan1 / Fan Zhang2 / Handan Wand3

1Public Health Agency of Canada

2Public Health Agency of Canada

3National Centre in HIV Epidemiology and Clinical Research

Citation Information: Statistical Communications in Infectious Diseases. Volume 3, Issue 1, ISSN (Online) 1948-4690, DOI: https://doi.org/10.2202/1948-4690.1011, October 2011

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We propose a new approach to estimate the number of new infections with the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), by integrating the back-calculation method based on HIV diagnostic data with proportions of recent infections among newly diagnosed individuals. This is done by establishing an explicit link between the distribution of time-since-infection given being tested and the distribution of time-to-testing given being infected. The trend in the proportions of recent infections identifies the time-to-testing distribution, which would have not been identifiable based on HIV surveillance data alone, and makes back-calculation possible. The integration of the proportions of recent infections among newly diagnosed HIV into the model allows a probabilistic interpretation of the estimated proportions of recent infections based on the results of laboratory tests, in terms of the estimated distribution of the time-since-infection given being tested.

Keywords: back-calculation; EMS algorithm; multiple data sources

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