Jump to ContentJump to Main Navigation
Show Summary Details
More options …

Statistical Communications in Infectious Diseases

Editor-in-Chief: Evans, Scott

1 Issue per year


Mathematical Citation Quotient (MCQ) 2016: 0.06

Online
ISSN
1948-4690
See all formats and pricing
More options …

Episodic HIV Risk Behavior Can Greatly Amplify HIV Prevalence and the Fraction of Transmissions from Acute HIV Infection

Xinyu Zhang / Lin Zhong / Ethan Romero-Severson / Shah Jamal Alam / Christopher J. Henry / Erik M. Volz / James S. Koopman
Published Online: 2012-11-04 | DOI: https://doi.org/10.1515/1948-4690.1041

Abstract

A deterministic compartmental model was explored that relaxed the unrealistic assumption in most HIV transmission models that behaviors of individuals are constant over time. A simple model was formulated to better explain the effects observed. Individuals had a high and a low contact rate and went back and forth between them. This episodic risk behavior interacted with the short period of high transmissibility during acute HIV infection to cause dramatic increases in prevalence as the differences between high and low contact rates increased and as the duration of high risk better matched the duration of acute HIV infection. These same changes caused a considerable increase in the fraction of all transmissions that occurred during acute infection. These strong changes occurred despite a constant total number of contacts and a constant total transmission potential from acute infection. Two phenomena played a strong role in generating these effects. First, people were infected more often during their high contact rate phase and they remained with high contact rates during the highly contagious acute infection stage. Second, when individuals with previously low contact rates moved into an episodic high-risk period, they were more likely to be susceptible and thus provided more high contact rate susceptible individuals who could get infected. These phenomena make test and treat control strategies less effective and could cause some behavioral interventions to increase transmission. Signature effects on genetic patterns between HIV strains could make it possible to determine whether these episodic risk effects are acting in a population.

Keywords: HIV; mathematical modeling; risk behavior; MSM

About the article

Published Online: 2012-11-04


Citation Information: Statistical Communications in Infectious Diseases, ISSN (Online) 1948-4690, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1515/1948-4690.1041.

Export Citation

©2012 Walter de Gruyter GmbH & Co. KG, Berlin/Boston. Copyright Clearance Center

Citing Articles

Here you can find all Crossref-listed publications in which this article is cited. If you would like to receive automatic email messages as soon as this article is cited in other publications, simply activate the “Citation Alert” on the top of this page.

[1]
Christopher J. Henry and James S. Koopman
Scientific Reports, 2015, Volume 5, Number 1
[2]
Georgios K. Nikolopoulos, Eirini Pavlitina, Stephen Q. Muth, John Schneider, Mina Psichogiou, Leslie D. Williams, Dimitrios Paraskevis, Vana Sypsa, Gkikas Magiorkinis, Pavlo Smyrnov, Anya Korobchuk, Tetyana I. Vasylyeva, Britt Skaathun, Melpomeni Malliori, Evangelos Kafetzopoulos, Angelos Hatzakis, and Samuel R. Friedman
Scientific Reports, 2016, Volume 6, Number 1
[3]
Ganna Rozhnova, Maarten F. Schim van der Loeff, Janneke C. M. Heijne, Mirjam E. Kretzschmar, and Katia Koelle
PLOS Computational Biology, 2016, Volume 12, Number 8, Page e1005012
[4]
Dvora Joseph Davey, Matthew Beymer, Chelsea P. Roberts, Robert K. Bolan, and Jeffrey D. Klausner
JAIDS Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes, 2017, Volume 74, Number 4, Page e97
[5]
Dvora L. Joseph Davey, Matt R. Beymer, Chelsea Roberts, Robert K. Bolan, and Jeffrey D. Klausner
Journal of Infectious Diseases, 2016, Volume 213, Number 12, Page 2020
[6]
Shah Jamal Alam, Xinyu Zhang, Ethan Obie Romero-Severson, Christopher Henry, Lin Zhong, Erik M. Volz, Bluma G. Brenner, and James S. Koopman
Epidemics, 2013, Volume 5, Number 1, Page 44

Comments (0)

Please log in or register to comment.
Log in