Jump to ContentJump to Main Navigation
Show Summary Details
More options …

Statistics, Politics and Policy

Editor-in-Chief: Wagschal, Uwe

See all formats and pricing
More options …

A New Method for Deriving Global Estimates of Maternal Mortality

John R. Wilmoth / Nobuko Mizoguchi / Mikkel Z. Oestergaard / Lale Say / Colin D. Mathers / Sarah Zureick-Brown / Mie Inoue / Doris Chou
Published Online: 2012-07-13 | DOI: https://doi.org/10.1515/2151-7509.1038


Maternal mortality is widely regarded as a key indicator of population health and of social and economic development. Its levels and trends are monitored closely by the United Nations and others, inspired in part by the UN's Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), which call for a three-fourths reduction in the maternal mortality ratio between 1990 and 2015. Unfortunately, the empirical basis for such monitoring remains quite weak, requiring the use of statistical models to obtain estimates for most countries.In this paper we describe a new method for estimating global levels and trends in maternal mortality. For countries lacking adequate data for direct calculation of estimates, we employed a parametric model that separates maternal deaths related to HIV/AIDS from all others. For maternal deaths unrelated to HIV/AIDS, the model consists of a hierarchical linear regression with three predictors and variable intercepts for both countries and regions. The uncertainty of estimates was assessed by simulating the estimation process, accounting for variability both in the data and in other model inputs.The method was used to obtain the most recent set of UN estimates, published in September 2010. Here, we provide a concise description and explanation of the approach, including a new analysis of the components of variability reflected in the uncertainty intervals.Final estimates provide evidence of a more rapid decline in the global maternal mortality ratio than suggested by previous work, including another study published in April 2010. We compare findings from the two recent studies and discuss topics for further research to help resolve differences.

This article offers supplementary material which is provided at the end of the article.

Keywords: maternal mortality; multilevel regression model; AIDS mortality; Millennium Development Goals

About the article

Published Online: 2012-07-13

Citation Information: Statistics, Politics, and Policy, Volume 3, Issue 2, ISSN (Online) 2151-7509, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1515/2151-7509.1038.

Export Citation

©2012 Walter de Gruyter GmbH & Co. KG, Berlin/Boston.Get Permission

Supplementary Article Materials

Citing Articles

Here you can find all Crossref-listed publications in which this article is cited. If you would like to receive automatic email messages as soon as this article is cited in other publications, simply activate the “Citation Alert” on the top of this page.

Worku Taye Getahun, Abayneh Aklilu Solomon, Fisseha Yetewale Kassie, Habtamu Kebebe Kasaye, Habtamu Temesgen Denekew, and Olalekan Uthman
PLOS ONE, 2018, Volume 13, Number 12, Page e0208470
Habtamu Kebebe Kasaye, Zerfu Mulaw Endale, Temesgen Worku Gudayu, and Melese Siyoum Desta
BMC Pregnancy and Childbirth, 2017, Volume 17, Number 1
Ganesh Acharya
Acta Obstetricia et Gynecologica Scandinavica, 2017, Volume 96, Number 1, Page 5
Leontine Alkema, Doris Chou, Daniel Hogan, Sanqian Zhang, Ann-Beth Moller, Alison Gemmill, Doris Ma Fat, Ties Boerma, Marleen Temmerman, Colin Mathers, and Lale Say
The Lancet, 2016, Volume 387, Number 10017, Page 462
Stéphane Helleringer, Gilles Pison, Bruno Masquelier, Almamy Malick Kanté, Laetitia Douillot, Cheikh Tidiane Ndiaye, Géraldine Duthé, Cheikh Sokhna, and Valérie Delaunay
Tropical Medicine & International Health, 2015, Volume 20, Number 11, Page 1415
Michael T. Mbizvo and Lale Say
International Journal of Gynecology & Obstetrics, 2012, Volume 119, Page S9
GM Ni Bhuinneain and FP McCarthy
BJOG: An International Journal of Obstetrics & Gynaecology, 2015, Volume 122, Number 2, Page 174
Catrin Schulte-Hillen and Jean-Clèment Cabrol
The Lancet Global Health, 2014, Volume 2, Number 10, Page e565
Lale Say, Doris Chou, Alison Gemmill, Özge Tunçalp, Ann-Beth Moller, Jane Daniels, A Metin Gülmezoglu, Marleen Temmerman, and Leontine Alkema
The Lancet Global Health, 2014, Volume 2, Number 6, Page e323
Bruno Masquelier, Georges Reniers, and Gilles Pison
Population Studies, 2014, Volume 68, Number 2, Page 161
Vittorio Daniele and Nicola Ostuni
Learning and Individual Differences, 2013, Volume 28, Page 109
Eric O. Udjo and Pinky Lalthapersad-Pillay
Midwifery, 2014, Volume 30, Number 5, Page 512

Comments (0)

Please log in or register to comment.
Log in