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Vierteljahrshefte für Zeitgeschichte

Ed. by Altrichter, Helmut / Möller, Horst / Szöllösi-Janze, Margit / Wirsching, Andreas


CiteScore 2017: 0.14

SCImago Journal Rank (SJR) 2017: 0.104
Source Normalized Impact per Paper (SNIP) 2017: 0.940

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2196-7121
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Volume 59, Issue 3

Issues

12 Jahre Euro. Aus ruhigen Gewässern in stürmische See

Werner Becker
Published Online: 2011-07-08 | DOI: https://doi.org/10.1524/vfzg.2011.0023

Zusammenfassung

Währungen sind Sorgenkinder. Ganz besonders gilt das für den jungen Euro, und ganz besonders gilt das für die Deutschen, die im 20. Jahrhundert zwei schwere Geldkrisen erlebten und vor zwölf Jahren ihre harte DM für die neue Währung opferten. Hat es sich gelohnt oder hatten die Skeptiker recht, die dem Euro ein Debakel prophezeiten? Diese Fragen stellt sich Werner Becker, als Mitglied der Deutschen Bank ein prominenter Insider, der weiß, wovon er spricht.

Abstract

After twelve years the Euro can be seen as a success story given its numerous favourable features such as price stability and closer trade ties. There are, however, also some disappointments, in particular the government debt crisis in 2010/11. This crisis does not signal a currency crisis of the Euro; instead it points to severe government debt as well as banking problems in individual Euro area countries. The European Monetary and Economic Union (EMEU) is based on solidity in order to secure confidence. Consequently solidarity cannot in itself solve crises such as the one in May 2010. Therefore it is essential to restore a sustainable budgetary position in all four problem countries by reinforcing the stability and growth pact and strengthening growth through structural reforms. Following successful crisis management the ECB should focus on the aim of price stability. Ensuring budgetary discipline does not require a permanent rescue package but rather the threat of the Damocles sword of an orderly debt rescheduling for budgetary offenders and planning reliability for creditors regarding the rules of a possible future debt rescheduling. Should the Euro area problem countries fail to restore sustainable budgetary positions, the preferable outcome would probably not be a collapse of monetary union, but instead a sort of debt union with the growing risk of becoming a transfer union.

Keywords: Durchwachsene Eurobilanz; Risiken des Euro; Zukunftschancen des Euro

About the article

Published Online: 2011-07-08

Published in Print: 2011-07-15


Citation Information: Vierteljahrshefte für Zeitgeschichte, Volume 59, Issue 3, Pages 445–466, ISSN (Online) 2196-7121, ISSN (Print) 0042-5702, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1524/vfzg.2011.0023.

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© by Oldenbourg Wissenschaftsverlag, Mainz, Germany. This content is open access.

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