Abstract

In this paper, we first formulate a number of working hypotheses about the likely contributions of exchange rate policy to economic development on the background of the famous “trilemma” which exchange rate policy has to face. Then, we broadly review experiences made by developing countries with different exchange rate regimes in the past 30 years. We find that in addition to the classical trilemma put forward by Bob Mundell (1968) vis-à-vis the exchange rate system, emerging economies have to solve at least one more trilemma located in their domestic financial markets. We show that the alternatives “flexible” or “fixed” exchange rates can only be chosen based on sound economic reasoning with regard to the stance and control of domestic financial markets. From this perspective, one can expect contributions to economic development and even give some advice to China and its current exchange rate policy.