A Nonlinear State Space Model for the Blood Glucose Metabolism of a Diabetic (Ein nichtlineares Zustandsraummodell für den Blutglukosemetabolismus eines Diabetikers)

T. Briegel and V. Tresp

The blood glucose metabolism of a diabetic is a complex nonlinear process closely linked to a number of internal factors which are not easily accessible to measurement. Based on accessible information – such as occasional blood glucose measurements and information about food intake and physical exercise – the system appears highly stochastic and the quantity of main interest, the blood glucose concentration, is very difficult to model and to predict. In this paper we describe a stochastic nonlinear state space model for modeling the blood glucose concentration of a diabetic patient. The model structure is based on physiological prior knowledge and the main nonlinearities are modeled using artificial neural networks. Offline training of the model is performed using a newly developed Monte-Carlo generalized EM (expectation maximization) algorithm. Online prediction is performed using particle filters. Our experimental results show that our approach provides better prediction results than a number of competing approaches.

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AT – Automatisierungstechnik covers the entire field of automation technology. It presents the development of theoretical procedures and their possible applications. Topics include new discoveries about the development and application of methods. It presents the function, properties, and applications of tools and includes contributions from the worlds of research, academia, and industry.