This paper presents the impact evaluation of a pilot program that treated 57 small organizations of agricultural producers with high risk of getting involved in illegal drug production in Colombia. The program supported producers mainly by facilitating the commercialization of their new licit alternative sources of income. We combine propensity score matching, regression discontinuity, and Bayesian decision theory, with unique and rich panel data to assess the economic impact of the program. Our results suggest that the program was successful on increasing total sales and improving the product’s quality for the treated producers. The intervention was more successful when combined with other programs that gave producers incentives to abandon illegal drug production definitely.
Angrist, J., and A.Kugler2008. “Rural Windfall or a New Resource Curse? Coca, Income, and Civil Conflict in Colombia”. The Review of Economics and Statistics90(2): 191–215.10.1162/rest.90.2.191)| false
Farrell, G.1998. “Global Empirical Review of Drug Crop Eradication and United Nations’ Crop Substitution and Alternative Development Strategies.” Journal of Drug Issues28 (2):395–436.10.1177/002204269802800207)| false
Funding: This paper was part of an evaluation that the Office of Evaluation and Oversight (OVE) of the Inter-American Development Bank carried out for the projects supported by the Multilateral Investment Fund II (MIF II).