Risk Management and the Role of Spot Price Predictions in the Australian Retail Electricity Market

Maxwell J Stevenson 1 , 1 , Luiz Felipe Moreira do Amaral 2 , 2  and Maurice Peat 3 , 3
  • 1 The University of Sydney, m.stevenson@econ.usyd.edu.au
  • 2 Pontificia Universidade Catolica Do Rio De Janeiro, lfelipe@ele.puc-rio.br
  • 3 The University of Sydney, m.peat@econ.usyd.edu.au

This study investigates the extent to which predicted electricity spot prices from a statistical model, along with consensus forecasts issued by the Australian Financial Market Association (AFMA), provide unbiased price estimates of a forward contract price over a specified time to expiration. The statistical model is a regime switching time series model which is based on the dynamics of the market mechanism. To evaluate a price estimate, two criteria are utilized in order to conclude appropriateness for use in the marking-to-market process. First is the requirement that the predicted prices converge to the spot price at expiration of a hedging contract. The second criterion refers to the mis-pricing due to the price estimates over the days leading up to the contract expiration. Over the data period under consideration, the ranking of alternatives for generating price predictions is clear. On both criteria the Stevenson (2001) model is preferred. Of significance is the lack of support for the consensus (market) prices. They do not converge to the spot price at equilibrium and, further, they generate a considerable overvaluation of the risk management portfolio.

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SNDE recognizes that advances in statistics and dynamical systems theory can increase our understanding of economic and financial markets. The journal seeks both theoretical and applied papers that characterize and motivate nonlinear phenomena. Researchers are required to assist replication of empirical results by providing copies of data and programs online. Algorithms and rapid communications are also published.

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