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Using transfer entropy to measure information flows between financial markets

Thomas Dimpfl 2  and Franziska Julia Peter 1
  • 1 Department of Statistics, Econometrics and Empirical Economics, University of Tübingen, Mohlstraße 36, 72074 Tübingen, Germany
  • 2 University of Tübingen, Mohlstraße 36, 72074 Tübingen, Germany

Abstract

We use transfer entropy to quantify information flows between financial markets and propose a suitable bootstrap procedure for statistical inference. Transfer entropy is a model-free measure designed as the Kullback-Leibler distance of transition probabilities. Our approach allows to determine, measure and test for information transfer without being restricted to linear dynamics. In our empirical application, we examine the importance of the credit default swap market relative to the corporate bond market for the pricing of credit risk. We also analyze the dynamic relation between market risk and credit risk proxied by the VIX and the iTraxx Europe, respectively. We conduct the analyses for pre-crisis, crisis and post-crisis periods.

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SNDE recognizes that advances in statistics and dynamical systems theory can increase our understanding of economic and financial markets. The journal seeks both theoretical and applied papers that characterize and motivate nonlinear phenomena. Researchers are required to assist replication of empirical results by providing copies of data and programs online. Algorithms and rapid communications are also published.

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