Persistence in real exchange rate convergence

Thanasis Stengos 1  and M. Ege Yazgan 2
  • 1 Department of Economics, University of Guelph, Ontario, Canada
  • 2 Department of Economics, Istanbul Bilgi University, Istanbul, Turkey
Thanasis Stengos and M. Ege Yazgan

Abstract

In this paper we use a long memory framework to examine the validity of the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) hypothesis using both monthly and quarterly data for a panel of 47 countries over a 50 year period (1957–2009). The analysis focuses on the long memory parameter d that allows us to obtain different convergence classifications depending on its value. Our analysis allows for the presence of smooth structural breaks and it does not rely on the use of a benchmark. Overall the evidence strongly points to the presence of a long memory process, where 0.5<d<1. The implication of our results is that we find long memory mean reverting convergence, something that is also consistent with Pesaran, M. H., R. P. Smith, T. Yamagata, and L. Hvozdyk. 2009. “Pairwise Tests of Purchasing Power Parity.” Econometric Reviews 28: 495–521. In explaining the speed of convergence as captured by the estimated long memory parameter d we find impediments to trade such as distance between neighboring countries and sticky prices to be mainly responsible for the slow adjustment of real exchange rates to PPP rather than nominal rates for all country groups but Asia, where the opposite is true.

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SNDE recognizes that advances in statistics and dynamical systems theory can increase our understanding of economic and financial markets. The journal seeks both theoretical and applied papers that characterize and motivate nonlinear phenomena. Researchers are required to assist replication of empirical results by providing copies of data and programs online. Algorithms and rapid communications are also published.

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