Examining the success of the central banks in inflation targeting countries: the dynamics of the inflation gap and institutional characteristics

Omid M. Ardakani 1  and N. Kundan Kishor 2
  • 1 Georgia Southern University, Economics, Savannah, United States of America
  • 2 University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Economics, Milwaukee, United States of America
Omid M. Ardakani and N. Kundan Kishor

Abstract

This paper analyzes the performance of the central banks in inflation targeting (IT) countries by examining their success in achieving their explicit inflation targets. For this purpose, we decompose the inflation gap, the difference between actual inflation and the inflation target, into predictable and unpredictable components. We argue that the central banks are successful if the predictable component diminishes over time. The predictable component of the inflation gap is measured by the conditional mean of a parsimonious time-varying autoregressive model. Our results find considerable heterogeneity in the success of these IT countries in achieving their targets at the start of this policy regime. Our findings suggest that the central banks of the IT adopting countries started targeting inflation implicitly before becoming an explicit inflation targeter. The panel data analysis suggests that the relative success of these countries in reducing the gap is influenced by their institutional characteristics, particularly fiscal discipline and macroeconomic performance.

    • Supplementary material
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SNDE recognizes that advances in statistics and dynamical systems theory can increase our understanding of economic and financial markets. The journal seeks both theoretical and applied papers that characterize and motivate nonlinear phenomena. Researchers are required to assist replication of empirical results by providing copies of data and programs online. Algorithms and rapid communications are also published.

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