The Size and Effects of Emigration and Remittances in the Western Balkans. A Forecasting Based on a Delphi Process

Marjan Petreski 1 , Blagica Petreski, Despina Tumanoska, Edlira Narazani, Fatush Kazazi, Galjina Ognjanov, Irena Jankovic, Arben Mustafa,  and Tereza Kochovska
  • 1 University American College Skopje, III Makedonska Brigada 60, 1000, Skopje, Macedonia
Marjan Petreski
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  • University American College Skopje, III Makedonska Brigada 60, 1000, Skopje, Macedonia
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, Blagica Petreski, Despina Tumanoska, Edlira Narazani, Fatush Kazazi, Galjina Ognjanov, Irena Jankovic, Arben Mustafa and Tereza Kochovska

Abstract

This paper aims at forecasting the size and effects of remittances and emigration in Macedonia, Albania, Serbia, and Kosovo, using a qualitative forecasting method, a Delphi questionnaire. The authors examined consensus building within and between two groups of respondents: ten experts and twenty remittance receivers per country, in three subsequent rounds–two on the same group and a third cross-round. Consensual results suggest that remittances in the projected five-year period will increase in Macedonia and Serbia, and will reduce in Albania and Kosovo. With less consensus, the results forecast that emigration will decelerate, except in Serbia. Emigration effects for the society have been forecast as predominantly negative due to skilled labour emigration, while remittances were forecast to maintain their effect on poverty in Macedonia and Serbia, and weaken in Albania. Consensus has been reached, except in Macedonia, that remittances will support labour market activity.

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Südosteuropa is an English-language, multidisciplinary journal for the exploration of critical societal issues and processes related to southeastern Europe after the systemic changes of 1989/90. It serves as a forum for current work in Southeast and East European Studies, including Political Science, Sociology, International Relations, Contemporary History, Economics, Anthropology, Law Studies, Gender Studies as well as Cultural Studies.

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